England manager Thomas Tuchel will learn the potential path to World Cup glory this Friday when the draw for next summer's tournament is conducted in Washington. The German coach, appointed last year, has set his sights on 'adding a second star' to the England shirt by winning the competition for the first time since 1966.
England's Seeding Advantage
With the World Cup expanded to 48 teams, a favourable group stage draw could prove crucial. England have secured a significant advantage by being confirmed in pot one for the draw. They will be alongside most of the pre-tournament favourites and the co-hosts: Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
Furthermore, a new seeding system means the Three Lions, as one of the four highest-ranked teams, will avoid Spain, Argentina, and France until at least the semi-finals. Using the latest FIFA world rankings and the draw's conditions—where only UEFA nations can face another European side in the group stage—England's ideal and most difficult scenarios can be mapped out.
The Nightmare Scenario: Croatia, Panama, Jordan
According to the official FIFA rankings, England's toughest possible group would feature formidable opponents from each pot. From pot two, Croatia represent the most daunting challenge. Ranked 10th globally, they boast an impressive recent record, having beaten England in the 2018 semi-final and finished third in Qatar 2022.
Drawing Croatia would rule out a meeting with Norway from pot three due to UEFA confederation limits. This would make Panama, the second-highest ranked in pot three at 30th in the world, England's toughest opponent from that pot. The teams met in 2018, with England winning 6-1.
Completing this nightmare group would be Jordan, the highest-ranked nation in pot four, who are set for their World Cup debut. An alternative assessment suggests Colombia (pot two), a resurgent Norway with Erling Haaland (pot three), and World Cup regulars Ghana (pot four) could constitute an equally difficult draw.
The Dream Draw: A Clear Path
In contrast, England's easiest draw on paper would see them avoid European opposition entirely. The dream scenario would pair them with Australia from pot two and South Africa from pot three, the lowest-ranked nations in those respective pots.
From pot four, New Zealand are currently the lowest-ranked confirmed team and would be the ideal opponent. Australia and New Zealand can be drawn together despite their geographical proximity, as they qualified through different confederations (Asia and Oceania).
The Play-Off Wildcards
The final picture will be shaped by the play-offs in March, which will fill the last six spots, all destined for pot four. Italy, ranked 12th and a four-time winner, loom as a potential 'nightmare' opponent from the lowest pot, as only Croatia and Morocco in pot two are ranked higher.
Other high-ranked play-off contenders include DR Congo (56th) and Iraq (58th). Should a major upset occur, New Caledonia, ranked 149th, could become the tournament's lowest-ranked participant. All eyes will be on Washington this Friday as Tuchel and England discover their first step on the road to potential World Cup glory.
