Fact Check: US Nato Contributions and Green Party Polling Claims
This comprehensive roundup of fact checks has been compiled by Full Fact, the United Kingdom's largest independent fact checking charity dedicated to identifying, exposing and countering the damaging effects of misinformation in public discourse.
Examining US Financial Contributions to Nato
With recent geopolitical tensions between the United States and fellow Nato members over Greenland dominating international headlines, numerous assertions regarding American defence expenditure and Nato funding have emerged across various platforms. During his appearance at the World Economic Forum's annual Davos summit in Switzerland on 22 January, US President Donald Trump asserted that before his administration took office, America "was paying for virtually 100% of Nato". This statement has circulated alongside other claims about comparative defence spending within the alliance on social media channels.
Financial contributions to Nato can be assessed through two distinct lenses. Firstly, examining Nato's direct annual budget, which funds essential operational costs including headquarters maintenance, worldwide missions, strategic facilities and communications infrastructure, reveals that the United States contributes approximately 15% of the total. This proportion matches Germany's contribution, with the United Kingdom providing around 10.3%. The alliance's collective budget for 2026 stands at approximately 5.3 billion euros, with individual member contributions calculated according to their Gross National Income.
However, a broader perspective on total defence expenditure across Nato nations presents a markedly different picture. According to Nato's own estimates for 2025, the United States allocated 3.22% of its GDP to defence spending under the alliance's qualifying criteria. While this percentage wasn't the highest among member states, with Poland spending 4.48% and Lithuania 4%, the sheer scale of American expenditure in monetary terms was unprecedented. The US defence budget reached an estimated 980 billion US dollars in 2025, dwarfing the United Kingdom's 90.5 billion dollars as the next highest contributor.
When considering the combined defence spending of all Nato countries, which totalled an estimated 1.404 trillion dollars in 2025, American expenditure accounted for a substantial 60% majority. This means the United States not only outspent every individual Nato ally but actually exceeded the combined defence budgets of all other member nations. Historical context reveals that this proportion was even higher in previous years, reaching 72% in 2016 before President Trump's first term.
When questioned about President Trump's "virtually 100%" claim, White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly affirmed that "President Trump is right" regarding America's disproportionate contributions. She clarified that his remarks referenced overall defence spending rather than Nato's direct budget, stating: "America's contributions to Nato dwarf that of other countries, and his success in delivering a 5% spending pledge from Nato allies is helping Europe take greater responsibility for its own defence."
Analysing Green Party By-Election Polling Claims
Separately, a social media post shared by the Green Party and its leader Zack Polanski last weekend asserted that "latest polling" demonstrates that "only the Greens can stop Reform" in the forthcoming Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election. The claim was accompanied by a bar chart graphic showing Reform UK at "+12%", followed by the Green Party at "+11%" and Labour at "-20%".
These percentage figures, which contain minor rounding discrepancies, represent one modelling projection's estimated change in vote share compared to the 2024 general election results. However, presenting this data as evidence that "only the Greens can stop Reform" proves misleading for several reasons. The model's actual projected vote share figures, rather than percentage changes, indicated Labour maintaining a winning position with the Green Party placed third at the time the claim was circulated.
The Green Party responded to fact checking inquiries by stating that the referenced figures reflected "the situation before [Greater Manchester mayor] Andy Burnham was barred from standing" and suggested that "since then the downwards support for Labour has only increased further". The party also referenced media reports suggesting senior Labour figures anticipate losing the by-election, maintaining that "We do not therefore believe that the chart or the message is in any way misleading — it is clear that only the Greens can stop Reform."
It remains important to acknowledge that election modelling represents projections rather than definitive predictions, with different polls and analytical models frequently producing varying results. The specific claim that "only the Greens can stop Reform" finds insufficient support within the particular modelling data cited in the Green Party's promotional materials, highlighting the importance of contextual interpretation when presenting statistical information during electoral campaigns.
