Labour suffered a humiliating defeat in the Gorton and Denton by-election, finishing third behind the Greens and Reform UK. Despite strategists billing it as a two-horse race with Reform, the Greens’ candidate, Hannah Spencer, a local plumber, ran a campaign that resonated with voters disillusioned with the government.
Labour’s internal polling in January suggested only 3% of voters would back the Greens, but the result proved dramatically different. Cabinet ministers were dispatched to claim the contest was “looking good”, but on the ground, voters cited disillusionment with Labour’s performance and the blocking of Andy Burnham as a candidate. The Greens played a confident campaign, with Spencer’s victory lap planned just hours after polls opened.
Labour had hoped bad weather would depress turnout, but as polls closed, a party statement conceded byelections were “always difficult for incumbent governments”. By 1am, Labour was conceding defeat, with a source blaming an inability to replicate the turnout at a general election. A Green spokesperson dismissed the excuse as “desperate”.
The Greens celebrated early, with deputy leader Mothin Ali filmed crowd-surfing before the result. Many Labour MPs privately admitted the Greens’ campaign was impressive, particularly the relatable “Hannah the plumber” image. One MP said: “It made us look like even we didn’t believe what we were saying.” Labour had tried to portray the Greens as extremists, but that tactic backfired.
