Conservative MPs are warning that their party risks being wiped out in the red wall by an emerging threat on its right flank, amid alarm after two disastrous byelection losses. The right of the party is seizing on the dire results in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth – two supposedly safe Tory seats – to demand a harder line on immigration and tax cuts designed to nullify the threat posed by Reform UK, the successor to the Brexit party.
With senior Tories stating a “battle for the soul of the party” is now under way, the right is also targeting chancellor Jeremy Hunt this weekend. They accuse him of being “captured by the Treasury” in his opposition to tax cuts which they blame for loss of loyalty among core supporters. Reform UK only took a small share of the vote in both byelections last week. However, Tory MPs on the right who want more radical conservative policies point out that Reform’s level of support in both constituencies was greater than the Labour majority.
Reform UK is now planning to focus its efforts on pro-Brexit seats held by the Conservatives. Richard Tice, leader of Reform UK, told the Observer he wanted to help “smash the Tory party”. He also gave a cast-iron pledge that his party would not stand aside for the Tories in any seats, as the Brexit party did at the last election. Asked about the chances of a pre-election deal, he said: “Zero. Seriously, you could offer me five million quid and a peerage and I still wouldn’t do it.”
Tice said that he was already talking to donors about Reform’s election campaign and warned his candidates to resist any pleas from the Tories not to run. “People still don’t believe me when I say we’re standing everywhere in England, Scotland, Wales,” he said. He said that more involvement from Nigel Farage next year would be “massively helpful”, but that would be up to Farage, who is currently the party’s honorary president.
Tories on the right are now using the threat from Reform as a tool to lever the party further in their direction. One former Tory minister said: “It shows that the failure to deliver on migration means they [Reform UK] alone could hand Labour the red wall. You can easily say they underperformed in Tamworth and that the Conservatives’ saving grace is that Richard Tice is leading Reform, and not Nigel Farage.” A former cabinet minister said: “I think that puts Rishi under a considerable amount of personal pressure… what was interesting was the intervention of Reform. That’s probably because voters are not satisfied that what Sunak’s delivering are Conservative policies.”
