Keir Starmer's Premiership Hangs by a Thread Amid Mounting Pressure
Keir Starmer's premiership is teetering on the brink today as he confronts escalating demands to step down from his position. However, his rivals within the Labour party appear hesitant to seize the opportunity, creating a precarious political stalemate. As many as six prominent figures have been linked with a potential challenge to Sir Keir, yet none seem willing to initiate the coup, perhaps mindful of the adage that 'the hand that wields the knife shall never wear the crown'.
May's Local Elections: A Focal Point for Unrest
The political landscape has shifted unexpectedly, with May's local elections emerging as a critical flashpoint for discontent among Labour backbenchers. Initially, Andy Burnham was viewed as the primary challenger, but Sir Keir effectively thwarted the Greater Manchester mayor's ambitions by blocking his bid for a Westminster seat last month. This move extinguished any immediate hope of Burnham replacing the Prime Minister, reshaping the succession battle entirely.
The Frontrunners: Rayner and Streeting Lead the Pack
In the wake of Burnham's exclusion, Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, and Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, have emerged as the most likely contenders to vie for leadership. Rayner, often dubbed the 'Red Queen', has solidified her position as a serious candidate for the soft Left faction of the party. Despite her popularity with the membership and strong Cabinet performance, her prospects have been clouded by a personal scandal. The 45-year-old grandmother was forced to resign in September after admitting to underpaying tax on an £800,000 holiday home purchase, and an ongoing HMRC investigation continues to loom over her.
Rayner has recently taken steps to distance herself from Sir Keir, notably claiming she warned him against appointing Peter Mandelson as US ambassador—a decision that contributed to the Prime Minister's decline. Additionally, she played a key role in brokering a parliamentary deal to release documents related to his appointment, bolstering her standing. In a potential signal of her ambitions, she posted footage on social media of a hair touch-up, though the timing coincided with the resignation of Starmer's chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney.
Wes Streeting, on the other hand, has made little secret of his desire to become Prime Minister. His allies believe he commands the 'solid' support of nearly half of Labour's 404 MPs, well above the threshold needed to mount a challenge. However, his overt ambition and alignment with the Labour right could hinder his chances, particularly among the more leftwing party membership. An ally of Rayner famously stated she would 'rather stick pins in her eyes' than back Streeting, highlighting the deep internal divisions.
Other Contenders: A Diverse Field of Candidates
Beyond Rayner and Streeting, several other figures are in the frame for a leadership bid:
- Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, represents the right of the party and has gained attention for her hardline stance on illegal immigration, including moving asylum seekers from hotels to military barracks. She is also overseeing major policing reforms, but her approach may face opposition from the left.
- Ed Miliband, the Net Zero Secretary, remains highly popular with Labour grassroots members despite his previous leadership defeat in 2015. His commitment to green policies could appeal to the party base, though his electoral track record raises questions about broader appeal.
- Al Carns, the Veterans Minister, is an outside candidate with a compelling background as a former Royal Marines colonel awarded the Military Cross. However, his limited parliamentary experience since being elected in 2024 makes his bid a risky proposition.
Internal Dynamics and Future Challenges
The Labour party is grappling with significant internal strife, exacerbated by Sir Keir's perceived weaknesses and frequent policy U-turns. Streeting, for instance, has subtly criticised the Prime Minister for complaining about governmental difficulties, while Carns recently condemned Donald Trump for belittling UK troops' efforts in Afghanistan. As the May local elections approach, the pressure on Starmer is likely to intensify, with backbenchers viewing the results as a referendum on his leadership.
Ultimately, the succession battle hinges on whether any contender will break the impasse and challenge Sir Keir directly. With rivals wary of being seen as the instigator and the party deeply divided, Labour faces a turbulent period that could redefine its future direction and electoral prospects.
