Starmer's Premiership in Peril as Mandelson Scandal Erupts
Sir Keir Starmer's premiership has been plunged into a profound crisis, with Labour MPs declaring his leadership effectively "over" in the wake of the explosive Peter Mandelson scandal. The revelations concerning Lord Mandelson's alleged sharing of sensitive government information with the convicted paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein have triggered a wave of internal fury and existential fear within the party.
A Week of Political Cataclysm
As one former Labour prime minister famously observed, a week is a long time in politics. This has proven devastatingly true for Benjamin Wegg-Prosser, the former chief executive of the lobbying firm Global Counsel, which he co-founded with Peter Mandelson. A decades-long associate of the former Labour peer, Wegg-Prosser stood down on Friday, concluding his association with Mandelson was harming the business, though he insists he has done nothing wrong.
His presence at a Foreign Office drinks reception earlier in the week, as Westminster reeled from the initial revelations, starkly illustrated the pervasive influence Mandelson has wielded over the Labour Party, government, and British politics for decades—an influence Sir Keir Starmer is now discovering to his immense cost.
Internal Fury and Calls for Sacrifice
There is now a clamour among Labour MPs for Mandelson's actions, and the government's faltering handling of the fallout, to prove terminal for the Labour leader. One MP told The Independent unequivocally: "It is over." The only remaining questions, they stated, are "when, how and how painful."
Intense scepticism surrounds the idea that sacrificing his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney—a figure close to both Mandelson and the Prime Minister—would be sufficient to save Sir Keir. "It's like throwing a twig in a raging river and hoping it becomes a dam," another MP remarked. A minister asserted McSweeney must go, adding he should have been dismissed "months ago."
The Prime Minister was forced into a humiliating U-turn on Wednesday, agreeing to release all vetting documents on Mandelson after initially attempting to carve out 'national security' exemptions—a move led by Angela Rayner that many feared smacked of a cover-up. In Parliament's Strangers Bar that evening, despondent Labour MPs repeated the same two-word verdict on Starmer's prospects: "It's over."
Electoral Disaster Looming
A mix of anger and fear now grips the party regarding the scandal's impact on Labour's electoral hopes. There are grave concerns that a drip-drip release of documents on Mandelson will overshadow the critical Gorton and Denton by-election this month, as well as the English council and devolved parliament elections in May.
While Labour always faced a tough fight in the by-election, it was seen as a chance to demonstrate that Reform UK's momentum could be halted. "Farage could not have written this," one Labour MP lamented. "It allows him to paint politicians as all 'at it,' part of some elite helping each other instead of voters. It is an absolute disaster for a seat where everyone is watching us." A government insider conceded that hopes of winning the by-election have "plummeted every day" since the revelations.
The scandal also completely overshadowed the final Commons vote to scrap the controversial two-child benefit cap—a policy move insiders had hoped would boost their campaign in Gorton and Denton. Once again, Labour's message has been blown off course.
Leadership Contenders and the Spectre of Chaos
An extraordinary poll this week revealed 95% of Britons have heard of the Mandelson scandal. While Sir Keir has desperately sought 'cut through' with the public since the new year, it has arrived on the worst possible subject: a scandal concerning the man who helped install one Labour prime minister and may now cost another his job.
Speculation swirls that Sir Keir could attempt a wide-ranging reshuffle to shore up his position, but this idea has sparked fury. "I don't want to be moved," one minister insisted. "I'm good at my job."
Leadership contenders Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner are being urged by MPs to make a move. However, Mr. Streeting's own connections with Mandelson have left him damaged; his decision to remove online pictures of the two together has only emphasised their past association. "Wes is definitely tarnished by association. He was always part of that Mandelson/McSweeney club," one MP noted.
There is a growing belief that a leadership challenge may be launched once HMRC issues its report into Ms. Rayner's tax affairs, concerning an alleged £30,000 stamp duty payment issue that caused her resignation as deputy prime minister last year. A supporter of Ms. Rayner claimed she has the backing of around 80 MPs but cannot realistically act with this tax issue unresolved.
Amid the plotting, there are profound fears about descending into the kind of chaotic leadership changes that engulfed the Conservatives. One former minister, previously loyal to Sir Keir, told The Independent the Prime Minister must go, but the process must be handled with extreme care. Labour, they stressed, promised the country stability after years of Conservative psychodrama—stability of government, not necessarily of the prime minister.
The Mandelson scandal has exposed deep fissures and could precipitate a seismic shift in Labour's leadership, with the party's immediate electoral future and long-term stability hanging in the balance.
