Starmer's Chagos Deal Teeters on the Edge as Trump Withdraws Support
Keir Starmer's beleaguered Chagos Islands agreement with Mauritius has been pushed to the brink of collapse following Donald Trump's public declaration of opposition. The Prime Minister's controversial deal, which aims to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos archipelago to Mauritius, now faces a critical week as political opponents mobilise to secure its demise.
Transatlantic Pressure Mounts on Beleaguered Premier
Dame Priti Patel, the Conservative shadow foreign secretary, is scheduled to travel to Washington DC this week in an attempt to persuade the Trump administration to formally reject Starmer's Chagos arrangement. This diplomatic mission follows the government's decision to postpone a crucial vote in the House of Lords that was intended to ratify the treaty, creating what has rapidly developed into a full-blown crisis for the Prime Minister.
Sir Keir, who simultaneously confronts a make-or-break by-election in Gorton and Denton, is facing mounting transatlantic demands to abandon the sovereignty transfer agreement. Concerns persist regarding the future of the strategically vital Diego Garcia military base located within the Chagos Islands. The Prime Minister maintains he has "no choice" but to proceed with the Mauritius deal, citing binding rulings from the International Court of Justice and the United Nations Law of the Sea. However, his critics argue he is disregarding established UK opt-outs within international law frameworks.
A Political Football in Full Play
The political landscape surrounding the Chagos issue has become increasingly complex and contentious. Donald Trump's withdrawal of support via his Truth Social platform has energised opposition forces. This development, combined with Dame Priti's Washington mission and a previously unsuccessful visit to the islands by Nigel Farage, demonstrates that political adversaries now perceive the Prime Minister as vulnerable on this specific issue. A race is effectively underway to claim credit for what many anticipate will be Starmer's humiliation.
Last week witnessed the return of a group of exiled Chagossians to the islands, an expedition funded by Reform UK's largest donor, Thailand-based cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harborne. Right-wing opponents have been coordinating their efforts on this matter for some considerable time. Interestingly, when the deal was initially announced in 2024, it was the Conservative Party—who originally commenced negotiations with Mauritius—that spearheaded parliamentary opposition, while Mr Farage attempted to lobby Trump for a veto.
The Coordinated Opposition Campaign
What has emerged is a coordinated campaign involving the Great British PAC, a political pressure group established to mount legal challenges. Founded by Conservative Post creator Claire Bullivant and chaired by Advance UK leader Ben Habib, this organisation has joined forces with exiled Chagossians, led by their first minister in exile Misley Mandarin, who are campaigning for the islands to remain a British protectorate.
Prominent lawyer James Tumbridge, who has extensive experience working for both the Conservative Party and the Brexit Party, has been enlisted to pursue a judicial review of the government's decision. Opposition figures have also been actively collaborating with sympathetic Labour MPs and peers in an effort to block the deal's progression through Parliament.
The Critical Countdown and Starmer's Future
Sir Keir Starmer faces a strict deadline: the treaty must be ratified before May, or it will automatically fail. This assumes he remains in office until that point, with significant attention focused on the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election this Thursday. The treaty is currently anticipated to return to the House of Lords for consideration in early March, although no official date has been confirmed. Consequently, Liberal Democrat peers in the Lords are being intensely lobbied to align with Conservative votes to defeat the treaty.
A glimmer of hope remains for Starmer. A scheduled meeting between Liberal Democrat peer Lord Jeremy Purvis and representatives of the Chagossian community did not proceed this week, potentially indicating that Lib Dem peers might abstain rather than oppose. Nevertheless, even if the treaty survives the Lords, it must still pass through the House of Commons due to other proposed amendments, where Labour backbenchers are growing increasingly restless.
One area where Sir Keir has traditionally received praise is for his international statesmanship. However, the escalating Chagos crisis suggests that even this perceived strength is unravelling for the ill-fated Prime Minister. As the clock ticks down towards the May deadline for the treaty, it simultaneously counts down on Sir Keir Starmer's increasingly precarious premiership.
