Starmer's Critical Choice: Blocking Burnham's Westminster Return
Keir Starmer must prevent Andy Burnham's return to parliament if he wishes to remain Prime Minister, despite the inevitable outcry from the mayor's supporters. The Greater Manchester Mayor has made a logical, if provocative, move by putting himself forward for the by-election in Gorton and Denton, daring Starmer to stop him. Had Burnham turned tail at this stage, he would have appeared weak, effectively signalling contentment with his mayoral role and a willingness to end his career as a successful city leader.
The Promise Broken and the Political Stitch-Up
By seeking a return to Westminster, Burnham risks alienating some Greater Manchester citizens who may feel he was less committed to them than they believed. Indeed, he has shown a willingness to break his promise to serve out his third term, which concludes in 2028. However, Starmer is unlikely to allow this breach, with Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC) expected to refuse Burnham permission to seek the party's nomination as the by-election candidate.
One NEC member told the BBC in unequivocal terms: "He will not be the candidate if I have got anything to effing do with it. Not a chance." This decision will spark an outcry, branded as an undemocratic stitch-up, with critics who warned against blocking a candidate beforehand condemning the move. While Starmer may appear weak in the short term, he retains sufficient strength to withstand the backlash, including potential open letters to publications like The Guardian.
Burnham's Strategy and Starmer's Calculations
Ultimately, there is little Burnham can do but exploit his status as the wronged party to gather more supporters. He has effectively declared he could do a better job than the Prime Minister, with a striking statement highlighting his role in helping the government "communicate the difference it is making" – a nod to his self-proclaimed communication skills. To his admirers, it will seem only Starmer's cowardice prevents Burnham from riding south to the rescue.
Burnham's consolation lies in his purity as the exiled saviour of the party and country, remaining unsullied. Ironically, the best outcome for him might be for Labour to lose the by-election, allowing supporters to claim he would have won it, given his personal popularity in the north-west. He could then continue agitating for a parliamentary return, potentially emerging as a viable leadership candidate when his mayoral term ends, with a year still to go before the general election.
The Leadership Landscape and Polling Realities
If Starmer is still Prime Minister at that stage, he might be weaker and unable to resist Burnham's stronger claim to fight a by-election. However, that scenario is over two years away, and in the meantime, Starmer's position is likely to become more secure. He is expected to ignore warnings that blocking Burnham makes a leadership challenge more probable, as this can never be conclusively proved.
Some wavering Labour MPs might be pushed further into rebellion, but if that is all it takes, they probably couldn't have been relied on anyway. Crucially, Starmer knows that if Burnham isn't available as a candidate, a leadership challenge becomes harder, because potential rivals in the House of Commons are less formidable. Angela Rayner's tax affairs remain unresolved, Wes Streeting lacks broad support among party members, and Ed Miliband is less popular as a potential prime minister than as a cabinet minister.
Burnham is more popular than any of them among the general public, a key consideration for MPs and party members. Polls suggest he is the only candidate who could outperform Starmer against figures like Nigel Farage in a general election, though the difference is small and such hypothetical polling is notoriously unreliable. Burnham does not offer distinctly different policies from Starmer, except hinting at a left-wing version of Trussonomics, and his superficial popularity could vanish like froth on a pint in a gale.
Starmer recognises there will be a short-term cost to blocking his rival, but enduring that temporary embarrassment is preferable to having a walking bad-news generator – or, as Burnham might style it, a "good communicator" – stalking the corridors of Westminster.
