Could Keir Starmer Survive an Andy Burnham Leadership Challenge?
Despite the prime minister's concerted efforts to mend relations with his backbenchers, persistent speculation about his political future continues to dominate Westminster corridors. With a clear pathway back to Parliament now emerging for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, the critical question remains: can Sir Keir Starmer maintain his grip on power?
A Rocky Start to the New Year
The prime minister began 2026 with what he termed a "promise of renewal," vowing in a New Year's Day video that Britain would finally turn a corner after what many considered a dismal first full year of his administration. Starmer pledged to tackle living costs and get the country "back on track," aiming to rebuild bridges with disillusioned voters and his own increasingly disgruntled parliamentary party.
Yet barely three weeks into the new year, it has become apparent that Sir Keir's fresh start has not materialised as planned. While his allies might argue that international crises involving Venezuela and Greenland have diverted his attention, 2026 has begun much as 2025 ended: with further humiliating policy U-turns on business rates for pubs and compulsory digital ID schemes, stagnant polling numbers placing Labour far behind Nigel Farage's Reform UK, and growing murmurs about whether Starmer possesses the necessary qualities to lead the party effectively.
Chequers Charm Offensive Stumbles
The prime minister's attempts to woo his MPs through invitations to drinks at his grace-and-favour country residence, Chequers, have encountered significant resistance. Some Labour parliamentarians are even planning to boycott the events entirely.
"If I went it would only be to read him the riot act," one Labour MP revealed to The Independent, "and I don't think it is the right venue for that." Others expressed feelings of being sidelined, with one complaining: "My invite is not for weeks. Clearly I am not top of the list."
A previously loyal minister conveyed a sense of despair when speaking about the government's direction: "We just don't seem to know what we are doing, where we are going. Colleagues go out on the morning round to defend something and then find out we have changed our minds. It's chaotic."
The Burnham Factor
The mood within Labour remains despondent, but Starmer's need to curry favour with backbenchers has become exponentially more urgent since a potential route opened for Andy Burnham's return to Parliament. The Greater Manchester mayor is widely viewed by many as the natural successor to lead both the party and the country.
The spectre of Burnham's possible Westminster comeback now dominates internal party conversations, with one backbencher describing him as "the only person who can save us from Nigel Farage and fascism." Speculation had circulated for months that Andrew Gwynne, MP for Gorton and Denton, would resign, creating a by-election opportunity for Burnham. Gwynne confirmed his departure on Thursday, though the mayor has yet to formally declare his candidacy.
Such a vote, which would require time to organise, presents the possibility that Burnham could enter the Commons precisely as the prime minister reaches his nadir, following what are widely anticipated to be disastrous Scottish and Welsh elections, alongside English council contests including London in early May.
Blocking Tactics and Backlash
The crucial question now is whether Sir Keir and his influential chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, will permit Burnham to stand as a Labour candidate. Whispers suggest mechanisms like all-women or all-BAME shortlists might be deployed to prevent his nomination.
A senior minister and Burnham ally warned The Independent as early as September that Starmer would block the mayor's candidacy, confirming this belief remains unchanged. After all, Burnham would "not be just running to be an MP but running to be prime minister."
Angry MPs have already signalled they will not tolerate such Machiavellian manoeuvres, promising "there will be a backlash." One ally stated: "I think the backlash against Andy being blocked would be so bad that MPs would be up in arms and it would probably hasten Starmer's departure."
Others remain sceptical about Burnham's appeal, with one MP dismissively asking: "Andy who? Now is not the time for these games."
Why Burnham Stands Apart
But why does Burnham generate such support compared to other potential leadership candidates already in Parliament? The Greater Manchester mayor has reportedly secured backing from the Socialist Campaign Group of MPs alongside other factions across the party. Supporters believe that, given the current public mood, any replacement for Starmer must be someone "untarnished" by the government's unpopular decisions.
This criterion would eliminate Sir Keir's former deputy, Angela Rayner, who left government last year following revelations about insufficient tax payments on a new flat. Though Rayner reportedly believes this does not preclude a return to government—potentially even to the top job—one MP noted: "The problem is that she is no longer a minister because she was forced to resign over her taxes, rather than because she resigned on principle."
Health Secretary Wes Streeting, whose position as a leadership contender appears strengthened by attacks from Starmer's allies, would similarly be discounted. Then there is Ed Miliband, who remains popular with party members. Friends insist he was "inoculated" against the top job by his previous unsuccessful leadership tenure between 2010 and 2015, though this has failed to quell speculation about his future ambitions.
Electoral Hurdles and High-Profile Risks
Regarding Burnham, two significant issues persist. Even if permitted to run as Labour's candidate, could he actually win a by-election at a time when the party trails so far behind Reform UK in opinion polls? Furthermore, any parliamentary campaign would be intensely high-profile, meaning he would "have a target on his back," as one ally phrased it.
George Galloway's threat to stand, alongside speculation that Green leader Zack Polanski and former Reform chairman Zia Yusuf might contest the seat, confirms that a by-election "would not exactly be straightforward to win."
Multiple Pitfalls Await the Prime Minister
Regardless of Burnham's potential Westminster return, numerous other challenges confront the beleaguered prime minister. The peril Starmer faces is perhaps symbolised by the Monday flight from Glasgow Airport that carries most Scottish MPs to London to begin the parliamentary week.
Just before Christmas, this flight revealed a stark dividing line within Labour. While Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar held an event in Glasgow, the split over Starmer's future became apparent. As one MP explained: "MPs who wanted another leader went to Anas's event, those who still support Keir took the flight south. There weren't many people on that flight."
A sense of resignation appears to be growing among some parliamentarians that Starmer will depart this year, primarily due to Labour's persistent struggles in the polls. Multiple MPs across northern England and the Midlands relay similar stories.
"If there was an election tomorrow, I would lose my seat to Reform," confessed one MP whose constituency remained safe even during the 2019 Conservative landslide. Another echoed this sentiment: "If I lose my seat I will be the first Labour MP in 100 years to do so. I really don't want that. But I would certainly lose to Reform at the moment."
Even loyalists now question whether Starmer will lead them into the next general election. One MP reflected: "Look, I don't think we should be talking about ditching Keir in May or even this year. The Tories showed us that it does not solve any problems and sends us into a doom loop. But if the polls are still bad a year before the election, then I would be the first to say to Keir 'I think you need to give somebody else a go.'"
At his first dinner with Labour MPs and their partners at Chequers earlier this month, Sir Keir served chilli and rice. The prime minister undoubtedly hopes that pleasant evenings of food and wine in the stately home at the foot of the Chiltern Hills will at least partially win over disgruntled colleagues and steer them away from potential rivals. Provided, of course, that they actually choose to attend.
