Allies of Angela Rayner have expressed growing confidence that the HMRC investigation into her tax affairs will be resolved before the May local elections, potentially clearing the way for her full return to frontline politics. The inquiry has been a significant obstacle since she resigned as deputy prime minister last September over an underpayment of stamp duty on her seaside flat.
The Guardian understands that outstanding legal issues are being finalised by lawyers, and the HMRC process is nearing its conclusion. Rayner is also expected to earn approximately £100,000 from speaking engagements and her memoir, enough to cover her outstanding tax bill, though it remains unclear if she will face a penalty.
Rayner has recently increased her public criticism of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, warning that his government is 'running out of time' to deliver change and must not 'go through the motions in the face of decline'. Her remarks at a Mainstream campaign group event on Tuesday were seen by some as the starting gun for a leadership contest.
Despite being the bookies' favourite and popular with Labour members, Rayner's allies stress she has no plans to directly challenge Starmer. Instead, she would weigh political and personal considerations before deciding whether to run. Other potential contenders, such as Wes Streeting, have also indicated they will not trigger a contest.
Some Labour MPs suggest that 81 MPs—the number required under party rules—could call for Starmer's resignation if the party performs poorly in the May elections. However, Starmer has stated he would fight any contest, and Downing Street sources believe he would win due to a strong personal mandate from the last election.
