Angela Rayner's Leadership Ambitions Rise Amid Labour's Starmer Crisis
With furious Labour MPs and the public demanding accountability over Lord Mandelson's connection to Jeffrey Epstein, Keir Starmer's position as Prime Minister appears increasingly precarious. The only factor preventing his immediate removal has been uncertainty over a suitable replacement, but that dynamic may be shifting rapidly.
The Mandelson-Epstein Scandal Deepens Labour's Turmoil
Recent revelations that Peter Mandelson shared market-sensitive information with convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein during the financial crisis have cast Starmer's decision to appoint Mandelson as US ambassador in an extremely troubling light. Labour MPs, many already dissatisfied with Starmer's leadership, are incensed not only by the appointment itself but by Number Ten's handling of the subsequent fallout.
This situation exposes significant weaknesses in Starmer's leadership, particularly the contradiction between his background as former director of public prosecutions and his apparent obliviousness to the professional connections between his appointees and child sex offenders. Starmer recently nominated his former adviser Matthew Doyle to the Lords despite Doyle's campaign support for a friend charged with child sex offences.
Women within the parliamentary Labour party are especially angered, viewing this as another example of the Labour boys' club overlooking serious flaws and poor judgment among its members.
Rayner's Strategic Moves Position Her as Frontrunner
The critical question following "when" Starmer might depart is "who" might succeed him, and Angela Rayner's recent actions have significantly bolstered her position. This week, Rayner successfully extracted concessions from Number Ten to avoid defeat on a Conservative motion demanding release of documents related to Mandelson's appointment.
Rayner ensured that Parliament's Intelligence and National Security Committee, rather than the Cabinet Office, will determine which documents can be withheld on national security grounds. This represents a substantial shift with far-reaching implications, potentially forcing disclosure of broad communications between Labour ministers and advisers.
Rayner has long been discussed as a leading contender to succeed Starmer, and her background clearly distinguishes her from the Labour establishment. Her journey from child carer and single teenage mother to Deputy Prime Minister demonstrates her exceptional political skills and popularity.
Obstacles and Opportunities in Rayner's Path
Alongside Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, Rayner was previously considered the favoured soft-left candidate, with the advantage of holding a parliamentary seat. However, her resignation last September following revelations about tax underpayment on an £800,000 flat in Hove created significant obstacles.
The Prime Minister's ethics adviser found Rayner had unintentionally breached the ministerial code, and she currently awaits the outcome of an HMRC investigation into stamp duty underpayment that could result in substantial fines. Despite this, her allies point to the ethics adviser's important finding that she "had acted with integrity," believing she could eventually make a Cabinet comeback and win a leadership contest.
Rayner's decision to publicly pressure Starmer this week signals her growing confidence and positioning for potential leadership. In a members' ballot, she would likely defeat any candidate from the party's right wing, such as Health Secretary Wes Streeting, given Labour membership's left-leaning tendencies.
The Complex Timing of Leadership Transition
While many Labour MPs believe Starmer cannot lead them into the next election, they also fear the electoral consequences of a prolonged, divisive leadership contest while governing the country. Some prefer a coronation-style succession among MPs rather than a membership ballot, but this would require consensus around a single candidate through backroom negotiations between party factions.
Rayner would be in a stronger negotiating position had the HMRC investigation concluded with any potential fines settled. Beyond personal considerations, there are compelling political reasons to delay any leadership transition. The May elections are widely anticipated to be disastrous for Labour, and many believe it preferable for Starmer to bear responsibility rather than passing a poisoned chalice to a new Prime Minister.
Labour's Fundamental Governance Challenges
The Starmer premiership faces two fundamental issues: Starmer's wooden communication style and difficulty connecting with voters, and Labour's lack of clear governing agenda following election without substantive policy platform. The party fought a deliberately vague campaign to capitalize on Conservative unpopularity without committing to specific policies, creating governance challenges now in power.
Labour urgently needs to define its future direction and governing purpose—work that should have been completed in opposition. Potential successors including Rayner, Burnham, Streeting, and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood are all superior communicators to Starmer, but Labour requires more than communication skills to counter Reform UK and prevent voter defection to left-wing parties.
The greatest risk in immediate leadership transition is a temporary "not-Starmer" honeymoon period that dissipates well before the next election. With only one realistic opportunity for leadership change before the next election, all party factions need additional time to develop coherent positions on economic policy, housing, and public services.
The Phoney War Continues
Despite intense speculation about potential leadership challenges, an immediate contest remains unlikely unless Starmer voluntarily steps down. Leadership contenders are undoubtedly building support behind the scenes while making public gestures to demonstrate their viability, as Rayner did this week.
All potential candidates recognize that timing is crucial, understanding that a full-scale leadership contest diverting senior MPs' attention from governing to internal party politics could prove disastrous for Labour and undermine any future premiership before it begins. The current phoney war may therefore continue for some time as factions calculate their next moves.
