Analysts poring over Viktor Orbán's crushing defeat in Hungary point to his EU antipathy, closeness to Putin, failure to engage younger voters, and political corruption. Yet these factors were also present when he won decisively in 2022, with Donald Trump in the White House and JD Vance rallying for him. What changed was a papal visit and the scandal that followed.
In April 2023, Pope Francis visited Hungary, a seeming endorsement of Orbán's right-wing Catholic policies despite their disagreements on migration. The visit was a success, but the government's attempt to show mercy by pardoning 25 criminals backfired. Among those pardoned was Endre Konya, a former children's home deputy director who had intimidated child abuse victims into silence.
The scandal forced the resignations of President Katalin Novak and Justice Minister Judit Varga, both key Orbán allies. Varga's departure derailed her efforts to build a right-wing anti-EU coalition for European elections. Her ex-husband, Péter Magyar, then launched a social media campaign exposing Fidesz corruption, becoming a leading opposition figure.
Orbán's grip on power loosened permanently. The scandal ended the careers of two potential successors and fuelled Magyar's rise, leading to the opposition's landslide victory in the 2024 elections.
