Britain and France do not share a fixed quota of political stability, but the coincidence of Keir Starmer's landslide victory last July with legislative elections that left France ungovernable for Emmanuel Macron was striking. Both leaders, potential allies in a Europe seeking stability, found their trajectories out of sync—Macron's presidency in decline as Britain emerged from Brexit turmoil.
The two crises are not comparable in scale: France's parliamentary paralysis is a big mess, while Brexit was a monumental calamity. Yet both were self-inflicted by arrogant leaders with misplaced confidence in their persuasive powers, analysts note. David Cameron called a referendum sure he could charm voters; Theresa May gambled on a snap election and lost her majority; Macron dissolved the National Assembly last summer, expecting voters to rally against the far-right, only to empower left-wing opponents.
Macron's subsequent refusal to appoint a prime minister reflecting the election result led to months of paralysis, protest, and collapsing governments. The combination of frenzy and stasis mirrors the Brexit crisis that ended in 2019, when voters gave Boris Johnson a mandate to finish the job. In France, the denouement could put Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella in the Élysée Palace.
While France and Britain differ constitutionally and culturally, the warning for Starmer is clear. Both leaders present themselves as champions of pragmatic, liberal democratic centre-ground politics, unburdened by left-right dogma. But Macron dominated the centre without building a legacy, and Labour risks the same if it fails to entrench its gains against rising populism.
