Labour's Internal Turmoil Deepens as Leadership Crisis Looms
The Labour Party's decision to block Andy Burnham from standing as its candidate in the forthcoming Gorton and Denton by-election represents the least damaging of two deeply problematic options for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. This calculated move by Labour's National Executive Committee has temporarily neutralised an immediate threat to the Prime Minister's authority, but it has simultaneously exposed significant vulnerabilities within his leadership and the broader party structure.
The Burnham Dilemma and Westminster Instability
The fiercely ambitious Mayor of Greater Manchester has never concealed his disdain for Sir Keir Starmer's leadership. Mr Burnham's potential return to Westminster, nine years after stepping down as an MP, would have created a profoundly destabilising distraction for a Prime Minister already facing mounting pressure from multiple fronts. Sir Keir currently has enough challenges attempting to shore up his flailing premiership without providing his most significant internal rival with a platform and parliamentary presence.
While the bar on Mr Burnham's candidacy has eliminated – for the time being – the possibility of an immediate leadership challenge, the political implications are substantial and troubling for the Labour leadership. Not only has the Manchester mayor solidified his position as a Labour leader in waiting, but Sir Keir appears weaker than ever before. The Prime Minister and his diminishing band of supporters within the Labour Party have temporarily fended off the Burnham threat, yet in doing so, they have revealed their own profound lack of confidence.
The Scottish Labour Crisis and Sarwar's Leadership Test
Sir Keir Starmer is not the only senior Labour figure whose political future now hangs precariously in the balance. North of the border, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar faces an escalating crisis that threatens his position and his party's electoral prospects. Less than two years ago, opinion polls suggested Mr Sarwar was on course to become Scotland's next First Minister, potentially ending almost two decades of SNP dominance at Holyrood. Today, his party appears to be heading toward electoral disaster, with current polling indicating Scottish Labour may finish fourth or even fifth in the upcoming Scottish Parliament elections.
Allies of the Scottish Labour leader point to factors beyond his control for this dramatic reversal of fortunes. Mr Sarwar, according to his supporters, is paying the political price for unpopular decisions taken by the UK Labour government in Westminster. There is some validity to this argument – Scottish Labour was caught completely unprepared by the controversial plan to reduce winter fuel payments for pensioners, a policy that was later partially reversed. This policy debacle played directly into the hands of the SNP, who seized the moral high ground by accusing Labour of abandoning elderly citizens.
The Women's Rights Controversy and Political Paralysis
However, Mr Sarwar must shoulder significant responsibility for his party's declining fortunes, particularly regarding his handling of women's rights issues. In December 2022, the Scottish Labour leader whipped his members to support the SNP's legislation introducing self-identification for transgender people. This controversial bill, which was subsequently blocked at Westminster due to conflicts with the UK-wide Equality Act, would have permitted any biological male to access women's single-sex spaces simply by declaring a female identity.
Public opposition to this perceived erosion of women's rights and safeguarding fundamentals was overwhelming, yet Mr Sarwar ignored feminist campaigners, medical experts, and political allies who urged him to oppose the government's position. The Scottish Labour leader has since experienced a change of heart, stating in a subsequent interview that had he known in 2022 what he understands now, he would not have supported self-identification.
Nevertheless, Mr Sarwar has largely avoided the subject since this admission, even as employment tribunals have highlighted cases where women like nurse Sandie Peggie have faced workplace repercussions for defending their sex-based rights. This silence, according to some of Mr Sarwar's colleagues, demonstrates his weakness as a leader and his failure to capitalise on a significant political opportunity.
Devolution Dilemma and Missed Opportunities
One Labour MSP expressed frustration with this approach, stating: "Anas got it wrong in 2022, but after he admitted as much, he should have been taking the lead on this subject. The vast majority of voters consider gender ideology to be completely unreasonable, and we should be aligning ourselves with that perspective. Instead, the Conservatives and Reform UK are championing women's rights while Anas appears completely lost."
Allies of Mr Sarwar attribute his inability to establish a clear position on self-identification to constraints imposed by the Labour government at Westminster. They note that nearly a year after the Supreme Court ruled that sex in law refers to biological reality rather than gender identity, Women and Equalities Secretary Bridget Phillipson has still not implemented guidance on single-sex spaces issued by the Equality and Human Rights Commission.
One loyalist explained: "Anas has been placed in an intolerable position by Phillipson. He cannot take initiative on this subject while the UK Government continues to procrastinate. If he speaks out, he merely highlights the ongoing disarray within the party regarding this issue."
The Political Landscape and Electoral Countdown
With approximately one hundred days remaining until the next Holyrood election, Scottish Labour is effectively ceding the defence of women's rights to the Conservatives and Reform UK. Meanwhile, First Minister John Swinney continues to spend tens of thousands of pounds in taxpayer money on legal battles to preserve the placement of transgender-identifying criminals in women's prisons. This situation presents Scottish Labour with both a moral imperative and a political opportunity that Mr Sarwar appears reluctant to embrace.
The fundamental principle of devolution was to enable political decision-making in Scotland to diverge from Westminster when circumstances warranted. Scottish Labour not only can but should confidently pursue different policy directions when the situation demands – and the current circumstances regarding women's rights and safeguarding certainly demand such differentiation.
Despite the successful blocking of Andy Burnham's bid to return to the House of Commons, Sir Keir Starmer's premiership remains fundamentally unstable and vulnerable. However, based on current trajectories and political dynamics, Anas Sarwar appears likely to lose his position as Scottish Labour leader before Sir Keir faces another significant leadership challenge. The Labour Party's internal divisions and leadership crises are manifesting on multiple fronts, creating a perfect storm of political vulnerability as crucial elections approach.
