Labour Faces Uphill Battle in Manchester Byelection as Voter Disillusionment Grows
The resignation of former minister Andrew Gwynne has triggered a potentially seismic byelection in the diverse Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton, setting the stage for a fierce political contest that Labour fears it could lose.
Anger and Disillusionment Among Constituents
When leaked WhatsApp messages sent by Andrew Gwynne were published last year, local businessman Stuart Beard witnessed unprecedented scenes outside his office in Denton town square. "There must have been about 60 pensioners with placards," he recalled, referring to local anger over Gwynne's derogatory texts, which included one saying he hoped an elderly woman who didn't vote Labour "croaked it" before the next election.
"I've never seen anything like it," said Beard. "It was like a riot – it was quite funny in a way." This anger reflects the widespread disillusionment that now permeates the constituency, creating a challenging environment for any Labour candidate.
The Burnham Factor and Political Calculations
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has not yet declared whether he intends to run for the Gorton and Denton seat, despite facing potential hurdles from Starmer allies. His decision could significantly impact the election's outcome.
"Without Burnham on the ballot, my standing expectation would be that Labour would lose – but I wouldn't be at all sure who they would lose to," said Professor Robert Ford of the University of Manchester. He believes the race could become a three- or even four-way split between Labour, Reform UK, a pro-Gaza candidate, and the Green Party.
"If [Burnham] isn't the candidate then it's a much more interesting race than if he is," Ford added. "He's such a high-profile candidate up here in Greater Manchester that he'll probably be able to make the weather enough [to win]."
Complex Constituency Demographics
The constituency's 119,000 constituents present a complex electoral challenge, spanning left-leaning young professionals in Levenshulme, white working-class Reform-leaning voters in Denton, and a significant Muslim population – 28% of the seat – around Rusholme and Gorton.
This diversity means multiple issues are at play simultaneously, from local concerns about representation to international matters like the Gaza conflict, which continues to influence voting intentions among some communities.
Potential Candidates and Political Maneuvering
Labour figures in Greater Manchester expect the shortlist to include various possibilities, from Green Party leader Zack Polanski to the rabble-rousing ex-Labour MP George Galloway. Galloway, who lost his Rochdale seat after just four months in 2024, teased his potential return to Westminster recently, stating on social media: "Labour has ZERO chance of winning Gorton if I stand."
Labour insiders anticipate the party may throw its weight behind Bev Craig, the leader of Manchester City Council, who represents a ward in the constituency. Craig is reportedly liked by Number 10 – she was phoned by Keir Starmer personally to inform her she was being awarded an OBE in the recent New Year Honours list.
Gaza Issue Remains Potent
A neighbouring Labour MP warned that any candidate, whether Burnham or someone else, would struggle to combat the anger and widespread disillusionment among voters. "I've never seen anything like it – it's not a good time," they said.
The MP noted that while the Gaza issue is not as febrile as before the ceasefire in October, it continues to harm Labour and could potentially contribute to Starmer's political challenges. "Labour has done good stuff [on Gaza] but the truth is the fire is not out and it could flare up again," they explained. "Worst case scenario, we lose Gorton and Denton and get hammered at the local elections – there are enough people who would like to take Keir's position."
Voter Sentiments Across the Constituency
At Longsight market, in a largely Muslim part of south-east Manchester, stallholder Mohammed Uddin expressed sentiments common in his community. "I've always been Labour, the whole of my family and friends have been Labour," said the 60-year-old. "But now it will 100% not be Labour. They're not recognising the genocide. It's even more of an issue now. My blood starts boiling talking about it."
Uddin believes everyone he knows will vote for a pro-Gaza candidate: "I don't think there's a single one of my mates that will vote Labour."
John Jones, 62, who has worked on Rusholme markets since childhood, offered a different perspective, suggesting he wanted Burnham to remain as Greater Manchester Mayor. "If Burnham ended up as [Labour] leader we could stand a chance but I'd rather he stayed up here and fired bullets at them."
Reform UK's Growing Appeal
Four miles east in Denton, retired carpenter Brian Huckle said he would only consider voting for Labour if Burnham was the candidate. "For many years I voted Labour but after all the upsets and cutbacks and bloody increases, we're all definitely against them."
Huckle, 66, admitted he "kind of likes" Reform UK, which came a distant second in this constituency in 2024, but added: "Whether I vote for them is another thing. I need to look at their policies in depth."
Stuart Beard expressed no such uncertainty: "Definitely Reform, irrespective of who Labour put up. It's time for a change from the two-party state."
Reform UK's Campaign Preparations
Reform UK has been planning for a byelection for months, according to Allan Hopwood, the party's only councillor on Labour-run Tameside Council. Activists will begin blitzing the area with leaflets in the coming weeks, hoping to secure their eighth MP.
"We're going to give it everything we've got," Hopwood declared. "If Andy Burnham doesn't think he's got a fight he would be very wrong."
The stage is set for a dramatic political contest that will test Labour's resilience in one of its traditional heartlands and potentially signal broader shifts in British politics.
