Labour MPs Weigh Options to Oust Starmer Amid Mandelson Scandal Fallout
Labour MPs are actively discussing ways to force Prime Minister Keir Starmer to stand down, as the Peter Mandelson scandal continues to shake the party. With frustration mounting over a series of missteps, resignations, and U-turns, the Epstein revelations have intensified anger among parliamentarians, fueling talk of a leadership change. Harriet Harman has warned that the Mandelson saga could bring Starmer down unless he takes decisive action, drawing comparisons to historic scandals like the Profumo affair.
Historical Precedents and Current Crisis
While some argue the Mandelson scandal is the biggest since the Profumo affair over 60 years ago, historical accuracy may vary. However, the parallels are striking: like Harold Macmillan in 1963, Starmer appears foolish for trusting assurances from a valued colleague that turned out to be lies. Scandals such as Westland under Margaret Thatcher, the Iraq war under Tony Blair, and Partygate under Boris Johnson have threatened premierships in the past. What could ultimately doom Starmer, similar to Johnson, is the impending release of damaging emails, text messages, and WhatsApp conversations under parliamentary order. If he is found to have knowingly misled the Commons, even he might concede it's time to go.
Mechanisms for a Leadership Challenge
Labour MPs have relatively straightforward options to challenge Starmer. Formally, they need a fifth of the parliamentary Labour Party—80 MPs—to commit to a challenge and publish their names simultaneously. This could trigger a contest with up to five candidates, assuming each group nominates one contender. Starmer could choose to fight without nomination, leading to a preferential vote by Labour members to select a new leader. This would mark the first time Labour membership directly chooses a prime minister, following the Tory grassroots' selections of Johnson and Truss. Timing is critical, with Starmer likely to delay by citing the ongoing Intelligence and Security Committee review of Mandelson files, which will take months, alongside upcoming by-elections and nationwide elections in May.
Potential Successors and Informal Pressure
There is no obvious consensual successor, unlike in 2007 when Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair unopposed. Angela Rayner remains under HMRC investigation, while Shabana Mahmood, Wes Streeting, and Ed Miliband face uncertainties about serving under each other. The party might turn to compromise candidates like John Healey, Hilary Benn, or Dan Jarvis for a fresher start. Andy Burnham's entry into the Commons is complicated by the NEC-controlled timetable, which Starmer influences. Beyond formal challenges, Starmer could be forced out through informal means: senior figures from across the Labour movement could privately or publicly demand his resignation, or cabinet colleagues quitting could create unstoppable momentum, akin to Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid's departures under Johnson. A parliamentary vote of no confidence, requiring 203-plus MPs, could also signal majority opposition.
Opposition Parties and Constitutional Conventions
While unlikely, opposition parties could play a role in ousting Starmer. Kemi Badenoch is rumored to be exploring a vote of no confidence in the prime minister personally, leveraging the constitutional convention that a PM must command a Commons majority. Ed Davey has already called for such a vote. If all opposition parties combined with around 100 Labour rebels, it could end Starmer's premiership. However, by that point, internal pressure would likely have already forced him out, as triggering a general election is undesirable for Labour MPs.
