Europe's New Right: A Modern Political Revolution Fueled by Trumpism
European governments are deeply concerned about Donald Trump's potential actions on trade, Greenland, and NATO's future. However, the most significant danger does not stem from a possible invasion of an ally or leaving Europe vulnerable to Russia. Instead, the primary threat is that Trump's ideological movement could fundamentally reshape Europe from within.
The Global Spread of Trump's Revolution
One year after Trump's return to the White House, his "second American revolution" is extending its influence across Europe. Initially, this began awkwardly in 2018 with Steve Bannon's efforts, as revealed in the Epstein files. Today, it has evolved into a more sophisticated partnership, bolstered by Trump's resurgence and the rise of JD Vance. The US National Security Strategy, published by the White House in November, explicitly advocates for strengthening "patriotic" European parties. These include Reform UK, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN), Fidesz in Hungary, and Vox in Spain.
Similar to communist movements during the Cold War, these nationalist, populist, and sometimes far-right parties should not be viewed as isolated national occurrences. They represent a shared intellectual project—a movement that is increasingly supported by a foreign power to varying degrees.
A Radically Contemporary Movement
Often depicted as backward-looking or reactionary, aiming to restore an idealized past, the new right's true strength lies in its hyper-modern nature. It is finely attuned to the political, social, and intellectual realities of the 21st century. Based on extensive research over the past 18 months, including discussions with Hungarian intellectuals, young RN politicians in France, Orthodox Jewish philosophers, and Maga supporters in the US, it is clear this movement offers a compelling analysis of liberal democracy's failures and a viable path to power.
Central to its ideology is the assertion that liberalism has failed, along with the globalized order it fostered post-Cold War. According to this narrative, citizens have endured a series of shocks from liberalization: the 2008 financial crash, the 2010 eurozone crisis, the 2015 refugee crisis, the 2020 Covid pandemic, and the 2022 cost-of-living surge after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Each crisis, they argue, has exposed liberal governance's limits, overwhelmed state capacity, and fueled distrust in government priorities.
Building a New Electoral Coalition
Benedikt Kaiser, a key voice in the AfD's intellectual circle, emphasizes that these converging crises have eroded the legitimacy of the postwar liberal order and mainstream parties, creating opportunities for political insurgents. The movement has successfully constructed a new electoral coalition, primarily appealing to working-class voters who feel marginalized by declining income, security, and social status.
This appeal is distilled into a clear policy agenda focusing on immigration, trade, foreign policy, and state reform, all united by a promise to restore national identity. Borders are used to distinguish "real" nationals from outsiders, tariffs are promoted to revive domestic production, foreign policy is narrowed to national interest, and institutional resistance is countered by attacking the "deep state" and discrediting experts.
Mastery of Media and Digital Platforms
The new right's success also hinges on its adept use of a fractured media landscape and algorithmic information spaces. As the public sphere fragmented into online subcultures, it learned to bypass traditional journalism and dominate digital platforms. By advocating a permissive view of "free speech," it formed alliances with figures like Elon Musk and flooded online spaces with its narratives, often using "alternative facts" and memes to dominate the attention economy.
Rod Dreher, a US conservative writer, highlights how the mainstream and digital right now inhabit separate realities, citing the case of Isabel Vaughan-Spruce, a Christian activist arrested in Birmingham for praying outside an abortion clinic, who is a cult figure in new-right circles but unknown to many.
Challenges for Mainstream Parties
Perhaps the most effective strategy of the new right has been forcing mainstream parties into an untenable position, portraying them as defenders of elites rather than workers, and of continuity over change. For too long, established parties underestimated the threat, and when they responded, they often mimicked divisive rhetoric on migration, inadvertently strengthening their challengers.
Pathways to an Effective Response
Any effective counter-strategy must start by acknowledging the validity of the new right's critique of liberalism. This should be paired with a political project that addresses working-class concerns and employs innovative engagement methods, as seen in successful examples from Denmark, the Netherlands, Kentucky, and New York.
Figures like Mark Carney and Anthony Albanese have recognized that their countries' populists' ties to Trump's revolution could be a liability. Polling by the European Council on Foreign Relations indicates that clear majorities in multiple countries view Trump's re-election as harmful. If centrist forces awaken to the international threat posed by the second American revolution and unite around a strategy that turns the new right's strengths into weaknesses, there is still hope for the political centre to reinvent itself as the true defender of national sovereignty and use the connections between new right parties and Trump to defeat them.
