Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham appeared to deliver a subtle yet pointed message to Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer last night, as he campaigned for the party's candidate in the upcoming Gorton & Denton by-election. This is the very seat that Mr Burnham was prevented from contesting himself, following a personal intervention by the Prime Minister.
A Symbolic Gesture Amidst Campaign Efforts
During his efforts to support Labour's candidate, Angeliki Stogia, in her bid to fend off challenges from Reform UK and the Green Party, Mr Burnham retweeted a message on the social media platform X. This post referred to him by the nickname 'King of the North', a title often used by his political allies. The retweet was interpreted by many observers as a veiled show of strength and independence, highlighting his significant regional influence despite the central party's decision to bar his candidacy.
Campaign Trail Dynamics and Internal Divisions
Mr Burnham was photographed alongside Labour's Deputy Leader, Lucy Powell, who notably was the sole member of a Labour selection committee not to vote against his candidacy. This occurred amidst widespread speculation that Mr Burnham was positioning himself for a future leadership bid within the party. Further adding to the campaign's intensity, Housing Minister Alison McGovern, an MP from neighbouring Merseyside, was also present in Greater Manchester, underscoring the national importance of this local contest.
Sir Keir Starmer's direct intervention to stop Mr Burnham from standing has transformed what was once a safe Labour seat into an uphill struggle. The party secured this constituency with considerable ease during the 2024 general election, but now faces a fragmented political landscape.
Electoral Challenges from Multiple Fronts
The battle for Gorton & Denton became even more complex this morning with the announcement from George Galloway's Workers Party of Britain that it would not field a candidate. This decision is particularly significant given that the party garnered 10 per cent of the vote in 2024, in an area with a substantial Muslim population. Their absence could reshape voter allegiances.
Renowned polling expert Sir John Curtice highlighted the dual threats facing Labour in the constituency. He explained to BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the party risks being squeezed from both sides of the political spectrum. In the predominantly white working-class areas of Denton, voters may shift towards Reform UK, while in Gorton, with its ethnic minority and student demographics, the Green Party poses a serious challenge.
'You can see how in one part of the constituency Labour do indeed face a challenge from Reform and in the other part it faces a challenge from the Greens,' Sir John stated. 'It illustrates the broad point about our politics which is our traditional parties, Conservative and Labour are now, from different ends of the spectrum, potentially facing substantial challenges from both the Reform party and from the Greens.'
Background and Stakes of the By-Election
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of the disgraced former minister, Andrew Gwynne, who cited health reasons for stepping down. In the 2024 general election, Labour won the seat decisively with over half the vote, tallying 18,555 ballots. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, came second with 5,142 votes, narrowly edging out the Green Party, which received 4,810.
However, shifting public sentiment since 2024, compounded by Sir Keir Starmer's low national approval ratings, could lead to a dramatically different outcome at the ballot box. The Prime Minister's political fate may be decided within weeks, as internal Labour party strife intensifies ahead of the vote on February 26th. There are growing warnings that a loss in this by-election could force Sir Keir out of leadership.
Leadership Ambitions and Campaign Strategies
Adding to the high-stakes environment, former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner also hit the campaign trail on Saturday, appearing prominently alongside Ms Stogia. Ms Rayner is reported to have amassed a £1 million 'war chest' in preparation for a potential bid to succeed Sir Keir, whose unpopularity is such that some MPs doubt he will even make an appearance in the constituency during the campaign.
Reform UK has been actively framing this by-election as a referendum on the Prime Minister's leadership. A victory for either Nigel Farage's party or the Green Party could prove politically fatal for Sir Keir, amplifying the internal pressures and rivalries within Labour as various figures jostle for position ahead of the critical February contest.
