As Kemi Badenoch prepares for what could be a make-or-break Conservative party conference this weekend, her biggest challenge may not be a leadership challenge but sheer apathy among members. One senior party activist said they were only making a day trip instead of the usual three or four days, adding: 'Quite frankly, I’m thinking: “What’s the point in going for any longer?” I know of lots of other people doing the same thing.'
While many MPs privately agree the clock is ticking on Badenoch’s tenure, there is a consensus that nothing is likely to happen soon, mainly because few think it would make much difference. 'The threshold for change is quite high. We’ve messed about with our leaders so much before and people hate it,' one MP said. Another added: 'For every voter I speak to who thinks we are too centrist, or who thinks we are mad Truss-ites, there are 10 who just see us as rats in a sack.'
Badenoch will deliver two speeches – a welcome address on Sunday and the main leader’s speech on Wednesday. One activist questioned whether the hall would be full on Sunday, saying: 'I do wonder if they might have to shepherd some people into the hall to fill it up.' Expectations are low, with one backbencher noting: 'If she manages to walk on to stage putting one foot in front of the other and delivers at least a reasonable speech then that won’t be seen as too bad.'
The party’s polling languishes at around 17-18%, while Reform UK gains momentum. A veteran Conservative regional organiser described 'entropy' in the party, with falling membership renewals and quiet WhatsApp groups. The recent defection of MP Danny Kruger to Reform has particularly hit morale. 'Before, the defectors were mainly fruitcakes. But with Kruger that made people go: “Ah, we’re in trouble,”' they said. One MP added: 'There is a lot of private worry and chatter about Kruger, and what Kemi can do about it. I think her leadership is coming to an end, and Kruger’s defection was the beginning of the end.'
Most of Badenoch’s remaining MPs will put on a show of loyalty in Manchester. A former cabinet minister compared the event to 'going to the in-laws at Christmas. You do it because you do it, not because it’s necessarily fun.' However, they added: 'There is a narrow path to recovery, but it requires a clear plan and a bit of luck.'
