A significant shift in political popularity has emerged, with Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch now surpassing Reform UK's Nigel Farage in public approval for the first time in more than a year. This change follows Badenoch's dramatic decision to sack former shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick after discovering his plans to defect to Reform UK.
Decisive Action Wins Public Support
The Conservative leader took swift action against Jenrick, accusing him of plotting to leave the party "in a way designed to be as damaging as possible" to the Tories. Hours after his dismissal, Jenrick officially joined Reform UK, where he was unveiled by Nigel Farage as the latest Conservative defector. Despite this political drama, a new More In Common poll reveals substantial public backing for Badenoch's approach.
Polling Numbers Tell a Compelling Story
The survey, conducted from the day after Jenrick's sacking until Monday, shows that half of all Britons support Badenoch's decisive action. Perhaps more surprisingly, even 45 percent of Reform voters believe she handled the defection situation well. Badenoch's net approval rating has risen to -11, marking her highest rating since December 2024, just one month after she first became Conservative leader.
This improvement has allowed her to overtake Nigel Farage, whose approval rating stands at -13. This represents the first time Badenoch has surpassed Farage since December 2024. The public appears particularly impressed with her handling of the Jenrick situation, with respondents three times more likely to say the sacking reflected well on Badenoch than poorly (34 percent to 11 percent).
Jenrick's Reputation Takes a Hit
By contrast, the polling reveals significant damage to Robert Jenrick's public standing. Only 14 percent of those surveyed believe the row reflected well on the former Conservative minister, while 37 percent say it reflects poorly on him. This suggests the defection strategy may have backfired in terms of public perception.
The Cost of Political Defections
Pollsters identified what they described as the potential "cost of defections" in their findings. More than half of respondents (56 percent) believe Tory politicians are defecting out of self-interest rather than principle. Among Conservative voters specifically, a staggering seven in ten said they would not vote for their MP if they switched to Reform UK.
Earlier this month, polling expert Sir John Curtice noted Badenoch's improving popularity following her well-regarded party conference speech and her response to the Budget. "This is a key reason why the average level of support for Reform itself has slipped below the 30 percent mark, for the first time since the party's success in gaining control of 20 county councils last May," he wrote.
Mixed News for the Conservative Party
Despite the positive personal polling for Badenoch, the survey contains concerning news for her party. Reform UK is winning the battle to be seen as representing the "Right" of British politics, with 35 percent of respondents identifying Reform in this role compared to just 29 percent for the Conservatives.
This creates a complex political landscape where Badenoch's personal popularity is rising even as her party struggles to maintain its position as the dominant force on the right of British politics. The Jenrick defection saga has clearly reshaped public perceptions of key political figures, with Badenoch emerging as the apparent winner in terms of public approval.
