The Conservative Party is engaged in a desperate "fight for survival" according to senior figures, as a secret watch list names 11 MPs at high risk of defecting to Nigel Farage's Reform UK. The crisis follows the dramatic departure of former shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick, with fears that a wave of further exits could be triggered before a key deadline.
The Defection Watch List and May 7th Deadline
Internal party concerns have crystallised around a specific date: 7 May 2026. This is the day of local and national elections, and Nigel Farage has set it as a "deadline" for any Tory MPs considering a switch; after this point, Reform says it will not accept new defectors. A senior Tory source starkly warned: "If these MPs all defect by 7 May, then it is pretty much game over."
The watch list, seen by The Independent, includes prominent former ministers and veteran MPs. Among them are Suella Braverman, Sir John Hayes, Mark Francois, Esther McVey, Andrew Rosindell, and Sir Desmond Swayne. It also features newer MPs from the 2024 intake: Katie Lam, Bradley Thomas, and Lewis Cocking, alongside shadow ministers Matt Vickers and Joy Morrissey. Insiders suggest the number of potential defectors could be over 20.
Leadership Reaction and Internal Backlash
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch launched a blistering attack on her former colleague, Robert Jenrick, accusing him of wanting to "burn the Conservative Party to the ground." She claimed his defection was motivated by a realisation "he doesn't think that he could be leader" of the Tories, and asserted that "the traitors are Farage’s problem now."
However, the leadership's strategy has faced criticism from within. One MP on the list remarked, "It’s almost as if Kemi is trying to force the right of the party out to join Reform." Another called the list an act of "panic." Esther McVey was openly critical of the decision to sack Jenrick, predicting: "There will be a backlash." The party leadership admitted it was "completely blindsided" by Jenrick's move.
Denials, Doubts, and the Future of the Right
When contacted by The Independent, almost all of the 11 MPs denied plans to defect. Mark Francois used a Talk TV appearance to reject the idea, while Sir John Hayes stated he "will not defect" and advised colleagues to "wait and see" about a potential future deal between the Tories and Reform.
Despite the public denials, scepticism remains high. A Tory insider noted pointedly: "I’m afraid Jenrick showed us that people deny they are defecting until they actually defect." The watch list is understood to represent "almost the entire membership" of the influential right-wing Common Sense Group, which had previously backed Jenrick.
Robert Jenrick himself, now Reform UK's newest MP, told the BBC he had "no idea" if others would follow him, stating it was a "deeply personal" decision. His defection comes just days after former minister Nadhim Zahawi crossed the floor, following earlier high-profile departures including Dame Andrea Jenkyns, Jonathan Gullis, and Nadine Dorries. The coming weeks until May 7th will be a critical test of whether the Conservative Party can stem the tide or faces an existential rupture.
