Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has emerged as the frontrunner to become the next Chancellor of the Exchequer when Andy Burnham officially becomes Prime Minister on Monday. The move would see her take over from Rachel Reeves at Number 11 Downing Street, according to sources familiar with the transition planning.
Labour Factional Divisions
Labour left-wing figures had pushed for Energy Secretary Ed Miliband to get the role, sparking a row that has divided Mr Burnham’s supporters. However, while Mr Burnham's team insist no final decisions have been made, it was thought the current Energy Secretary would be a target for criticism from opponents.
Shabana Mahmood's Profile
Ms Mahmood has been in charge of the Home Office since September last year, having previously served as the Justice Secretary. Her immigration reforms, which include abolishing permanent refugee status and doubling the qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain, have been controversial with some in Labour ranks. While she does not have a strong record on economic issues, she is understood to be considered more centrist given her hardline immigration stance. She also has a reputation for getting to grips with complex Whitehall departments and standing up to the civil service.
Ed Miliband's Prospects
Mr Miliband, who has been the Energy Secretary since Labour came to power in July 2024, is popular among Labour party members but his net-zero policies have proved controversial with the public. His supporters within the party have said he would be the best candidate to take on Treasury orthodoxy. However, some MPs have argued that he led Labour to a brutal general election defeat in 2015 and would be a risky choice with the electorate. It is understood he could be offered the post of Foreign Secretary instead.
Other Contenders
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is seen as an outside pick to lead the Treasury. She is one of the most experienced ministers in Government and served as chief secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown. Politically, the MP for Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley could be seen as a compromise between Ms Mahmood on the Labour right and Mr Miliband on the left.
Rachel Reeves' Position
Britain’s first woman Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has been lobbying to keep her job but it seems highly unlikely that she will stay on under the next Prime Minister. Mr Burnham, who is allied with the Labour soft left, is entering Number 10 on a promise of change. Ms Reeves is facing historically low public approval ratings with 54 per cent of the public saying she is doing a “bad job”, compared to 12 per cent who back her policies, according to a recent YouGov poll.
