Scottish Labour could be set for a coronation when Anas Sarwar stands down as leader, according to Daily Record Political Editor Paul Hutcheon. MSP Michael Marra may become the next leader without a challenge due to a dearth of contenders.
Leadership Speculation Grows
A growing number of Scottish Labour figures believe there will not be a contest when Anas Sarwar finally stands down as leader. Sarwar's holding position is he intends to carry on to provide his party with stable leadership, despite leading Labour to their worst Holyrood election defeat on May 7th. But reality will bite at some point and he is expected to resign either later this year or after next year's council elections.
Potential Successors
The question in Scottish Labour circles is who will succeed Sarwar after his five years in the job. MSPs Michael Marra and Paul Sweeney were tipped to go head-to-head, but insiders are now not so sure. Sweeney, a Glasgow MSP on the soft Left, is said to be unenthusiastic about fronting Scottish Labour and he is currently seen as leaning against standing. His reluctance to enter the field of battle - and the lack of any other realistic challengers - would make a Marra coronation likely.
Internal Reactions
Such an outcome would be broadly, rather than universally, welcomed inside Team Sarwar. Although the North East MSP held the finance portfolio under Sarwar and had a key role in producing the Holyrood election manifesto, Marra is not part of the leadership's inner circle. But he is rated at the top of Scottish Labour and Sarwar's allies believe there is no credible alternative to Marra, who is a party moderate and SNP attack dog.
Challenges Ahead
The next question is how Sarwar's successor would turn around a party that has become a byword for electoral failure. One party insider told me the lack of reflection and debate after the latest Holyrood election humping has been "extraordinary". He said Labour have lost five in a row to the SNP and yet they are plodding along like "nothing has happened". A second party source said Scottish Labour resembled hit US TV series "The Walking Dead", with MSPs stumbling around like zombies with no purpose or direction.
Electoral Struggles
Speculation is mounting that Labour could lose their deposit in this week's Aberdeen South by-election - a seat where they polled 24.7% at the general election. Smart Labour figures know the short, medium and long term challenges facing their party are ominous. Their core support is now a legacy vote comprised of Scots who back Labour out of habit or tradition. It is a party that has been snubbed by the young, abandoned by the old and is reviled by Scots who support independence. Few people know who, or what, Labour stands for in Scotland.
Structural Problems
Sarwar's successor will also have to come up with a solution to the structural problem that could stop Labour from ever winning again in Edinburgh. Despite running a poor campaign, Scottish Labour's defeat in May was made in Downing Street by Keir Starmer. Marra, or whoever is leader, will be judged in relation to Westminster at the 2031 Holyrood election unless a fundamental change takes place between UK and Scottish Labour.
New Ideas
The only person in Scottish Labour even daring to float the idea of a new party is former Holyrood candidate Jack McConnel. His new campaign, 'Just for Scotland', is said to have attracted a surprising amount of support, but that backing so far has been made in private. Whatever Scottish Labour has done over the previous nineteen years at Holyrood has failed. A new leader can either manage decline or blow up a struggling party and build something new from the rubble.
