Vladimir Putin is facing the most challenging period of his long rule, with disillusionment spreading among Russia's elite over the war in Ukraine and the struggling economy, according to interviews with sources close to the Kremlin, business leaders and Western intelligence officials.
Despite a carefully staged meeting with his former schoolteacher in May to project an image of confidence, Putin is increasingly isolated and surrounded by an elite that no longer defends him. 'There is profound disappointment in Putin,' said a well-connected business leader, noting a growing sense that 'some kind of catastrophe is looming'.
Putin's approval ratings are slipping, the economy is under mounting pressure, and even pro-Kremlin bloggers are beginning to criticise the president. However, those familiar with his thinking say he remains determined to press on in Ukraine, believing that Moscow can capture the entire Donbas region by the end of the year.
A Ukrainian intelligence official said Russian generals have convinced Putin that victory is imminent, but military analysts say at the current pace of advance it could take years to fully capture the Donbas. 'Even if many around him understand the reality, we still don't know what Putin himself understands,' a senior European intelligence official said.
Putin has also lost faith in Donald Trump's ability to pressure Kyiv into a territorial deal, according to sources. 'There was this widespread optimism in Moscow that Trump could deliver the Donbas after his election. It has largely evaporated,' one source said.
