The political future of France's far-right leader, Marine Le Pen, will be decided in a Paris courtroom this week. Her appeal against a conviction for embezzling European Union funds begins on Tuesday, with the verdict set to determine whether she can stand as a candidate in the 2027 presidential election.
The Charges and the Stakes for 2027
Le Pen, the 57-year-old head of the anti-immigration National Rally (RN), was found guilty last March in a significant fake jobs scandal. Judges ruled she was at the heart of a system that, between 2004 and 2016, diverted money meant for European parliamentary assistants to pay party workers in France. These staff had no connection to EU parliament work, with the estimated loss to EU funds reaching €4.8 million (£4.2m).
The original conviction resulted in a four-year prison sentence, with two years suspended and two to be served outside jail with an electronic tag. Crucially, she was also handed an immediate five-year ban from holding public office. This ban, which began on 31 March 2025, currently blocks her from the 2027 race. Le Pen has consistently denied wrongdoing, labelling the case a political tyranny of judges designed to stop her.
Bardella Waits in the Wings as Polls Shift
The appeal's outcome will directly shape the RN's presidential strategy. If the ban is upheld or replaced with a lengthy prohibition, Le Pen's political career would be halted. In that scenario, the party has a clear successor: Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old party president and Le Pen's protégé.
Recent polling suggests Bardella's star is already rising. A Verian survey found 49% of French people believe he has the best chance of winning the presidency, compared to just 18% for Le Pen. Another poll last autumn indicated Bardella could win a run-off against any opponent. Le Pen herself has acknowledged this shift, stating, Jordan Bardella can win in my place.
International Reactions and Judicial Independence
The case has drawn attention beyond France's borders, particularly from the international populist right. Former US President Donald Trump called the original conviction a witch-hunt by European leftists. Reports even suggested Trump officials discussed sanctioning French judges involved in the case, a claim vehemently denied by the US State Department.
French officials have been quick to defend their judiciary's independence. The president of the Paris judicial court warned that any move against a French judge would constitute an unacceptable and intolerable interference. The French government stated it would remain vigilant against any such external pressure.
The appeal trial, which will run until 12 February and includes ten other convicted party members, is set to conclude with a verdict before summer. All eyes are now on the Paris court, as its decision will not only seal one politician's fate but could dramatically alter the landscape of the next French presidential election.
