In a political earthquake that has sent shockwaves through Westminster, Nigel Farage's insurgent Reform UK party has overtaken the Conservatives in a devastating new poll, pushing Rishi Sunak's Tories into an unprecedented third place.
The bombshell survey by Savanta for The Telegraph places Reform on a record 19% of the vote share, with the Conservatives collapsing to a mere 18%—their lowest level in modern polling history.
Political Landscape Turned Upside Down
The dramatic shift represents a monumental collapse in Conservative support since the last general election, with the party having haemorrhaged a staggering 43 points from their 2019 victory margin. This seismic change fundamentally reshapes the battlefield just weeks before the nation heads to the polls.
Labour maintains a commanding lead at 37%, while the Liberal Democrats stand at 14%, according to the survey of 2,145 adults conducted between June 12-14.
Farage's Momentum Builds
Mr Farage, who dramatically took over as Reform leader last week and announced his candidacy in Clacton, has energised the party's campaign. His return to frontline politics appears to have triggered a significant realignment of the right-wing vote, with traditional Tory supporters abandoning the party in droves.
The poll reveals particularly grim reading for the Conservatives in their former heartlands, where Reform's anti-immigration and Brexit-centric messaging appears to be resonating with disillusioned voters.
Electoral Implications
Political analysts suggest this development could lead to an electoral wipeout for the Conservatives on July 4th. The first-past-the-post system may still limit Reform's seat count, but their surge could split the right-wing vote sufficiently to hand numerous constituencies to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
In Scotland, the poll shows the Scottish National Party leading with 34%, followed by Labour at 29%—a significant recovery for Sir Keir Starmer's party in what was once considered SNP territory.
As the campaign enters its final crucial weeks, all eyes will be on whether Reform can maintain this momentum and how the Conservatives will attempt to win back their fractured base in what has become the most unpredictable election in recent memory.
