Next month's local elections could deliver a fatal blow to the two-party dominance of Labour and the Conservatives, according to polling expert Sir John Curtice. He warned that if Reform UK and the Greens secure significant numbers of councils and councillors, they would establish activist bases that could reshape British politics.
Activist bases crucial for long-term challenge
Speaking at an Ipsos briefing ahead of the May 7 elections, the University of Strathclyde professor said the results would reveal whether these parties represent a 'long-term challenge' or a 'short-term bubble'. 'If indeed the challenge of Greens and Reform is going to be a long-term challenge rather than a short-term bubble, one of the crucial requirements is that these parties develop activist bases and local parties up and down the country,' he stated.
Sir John explained that councillors are the best local activists any party can have. 'Assuming that the Greens and Reform do get significant numbers of councils, councillors are the best local activists that any party has. So what this will do is help to solidify the progress the Greens and Reform are making in creating proper party organisations with activist bases. Meanwhile, the activist base of the Labour and Conservative parties in various parts of the country are going to suffer serious damage, and that makes the probability of the two-party system recovering lower than it otherwise would be.'
Evidence of professionalisation
Sir John pointed to evidence that both parties are professionalising, with Reform UK standing in 99.9 per cent of wards and the Greens in 90 per cent. Reform is fielding candidates in more wards than any other party, while the Greens are contesting more wards than the Liberal Democrats. The ability to find candidates across the country suggests they are already building an activist base.
Reform's support is drawn almost entirely from Brexit voters, but Sir John noted that Nigel Farage had previously failed to capitalise on this with Ukip or the Brexit Party. However, he added: 'Reform are actually embedding themselves in the politics of the land up and down, and the Greens are also now in that position.'
Lessons from the Liberal Democrats
Sir John said both parties could learn from the Lib Dems' survival after their 2015 electoral wipeout. 'The way the party survived was that there was still one man, one woman and a dog willing to fight local elections and to keep the party alive up and down the country.' After losing 49 of their 57 seats in 2015, they rebuilt to win 72 in the 2024 general election thanks to that local infrastructure.
Scottish independence and union threat
Sir John also warned that a strong SNP performance in Scotland could lead to a deal with Labour after the 2029 general election, potentially triggering the break-up of the union. 'If the SNP do well in Scotland and Labour faces the choice of doing a deal with the SNP or being thrown out of office at the general election in 2029, that is the point where deals get made.' However, he noted that support for independence would need to rise from its current level of around 50 per cent.
Outlook
Sir John concluded that both Labour and the Conservatives would lose a 'barrel load' of seats, with many councils seeing significant changes of control. The elections, he said, would be 'difficult' for the government, potentially marking a turning point in British political history.
