The Australian political landscape has been rocked by a seismic shift, with the Liberal–National Coalition falling into third place behind Pauline Hanson's One Nation for the first time in recorded history. A devastating Newspoll, the first major survey of 2026, has plunged the government into a fresh crisis just weeks after the deadly Bondi Beach terror attack.
Polling Catastrophe for the Coalition
The shocking Newspoll puts One Nation on 22 per cent of the primary vote, representing a dramatic seven-point surge. In a historic reversal, the Coalition has fallen three points to 21 per cent, slipping behind both Labor and the resurgent right-wing party. Although Labor has also lost support, dropping four points to 32 per cent, it maintains a commanding two-party-preferred lead of 55 to 45 over the Coalition.
The poll, circulated as MPs returned to Canberra on Sunday night, has created a grim mood within the Liberal Party. One staffer described the atmosphere ahead of Parliament's return as 'a funeral', with MPs privately expressing alarm. This result marks the Coalition's worst ever Newspoll showing, sparking internal fears that One Nation could claim up to six Senate seats at the next election if the trend continues.
Volatile Political Fallout and Internal Division
The polling disaster comes in the shadow of the December 14 Bondi Beach terror attack, which killed 15 people and has dominated the political agenda. Coalition MPs are set for a volatile joint party room meeting late on Monday night to debate Labor's hate-speech and gun-reform legislation drafted in response to the attack.
Insiders expect panic, particularly over the party's Senate prospects, where warnings suggest the Coalition could lose five or six seats, most likely to One Nation. However, a faction within the party urges caution, arguing the Newspoll may be a statistical outlier. They point to a separate Resolve poll conducted around the same time that shows a different picture.
A Contradiction in the Polling Data?
The Resolve survey places the Coalition well ahead of One Nation, leading 28 per cent to 18. It also shows the Coalition within striking distance of Labor, with Labor on a 30 per cent primary vote and a narrower two-party-preferred margin of 52 to 48. This contradiction adds another layer of uncertainty to an already tumultuous political period, leaving the Coalition to grapple with whether this is a temporary shock or a permanent realignment of Australian voters.
Regardless of which poll proves more accurate, the immediate consequence is a government in visible turmoil, facing an emboldened opposition and a surging populist rival, all while navigating the fraught policy aftermath of a national tragedy.
