Sir Keir Starmer has seen Labour trail in opinion polls for much of his time as Prime Minister, with his satisfaction ratings falling to the lowest level of any prime minister in 50 years, according to Ipsos data.
Poll Decline in First Year
Labour was ahead in the polls for several months after winning the general election in July 2024, with the Conservatives in second place and Reform UK third. However, by October 2024, Labour's average poll numbers dropped below 30%, then continued to slide to the mid-20s by early 2025. By July 2025, one year after the election, Labour averaged 24% in the polls, down 10 percentage points from 34% 12 months earlier. This was the first double-digit drop in support for a party during its first year in office since John Major's Conservative government in the 1990s, according to Press Association analysis.
Rise of Reform UK
While Labour and the Conservatives both slid in the polls, smaller parties rose. Reform UK climbed from third place on 17% to first place on 29% by July 2025. The Liberal Democrats edged up from 12% to 14%, and the Greens increased from 6% to 9%. In early May 2025, around the time of local elections, Reform pulled in front of both Labour and the Conservatives and has remained ahead ever since.
Second Year Trends
The second year of Sir Keir's premiership saw Labour's ratings fall further. Labour's poll average dropped below 20% in October 2025 and has remained close to this level. After peaking in the low 30s in autumn 2025, Reform's numbers fell in early 2026 and stabilised around 27%. The Conservatives typically average just below 20%, often level-pegging with Labour, and the Liberal Democrats around 13%. A spike in support for the Greens followed the election of Zack Polanski as party leader in September 2025, reaching as high as 19% in May 2026, but has since fallen back.
Current Poll Averages
The latest poll averages for the week ending June 21, 2026, show Reform on 27%, Labour and the Conservatives tied on 19%, the Greens on 14%, and the Liberal Democrats on 13%.
Starmer's Approval Ratings
Sir Keir's personal approval ratings have also been challenging. Ipsos data tracks public satisfaction with prime ministers since the late 1970s. The most recent Ipsos survey, completed in mid-May 2026, suggested 16% of adults were satisfied with Sir Keir's performance and 76% were dissatisfied, giving a net approval score of minus 60. This is lower than any other score recorded by Ipsos for a prime minister two years after taking office. In September 2025, Sir Keir scored the lowest satisfaction rating recorded by Ipsos for any prime minister, with a net rating of minus 66.
