The new development in Donald Trump's peace negotiations with Iran is a disaster for regional security, a retreat by the US, and a significant concession to Tehran and a failure by Washington.
The Deal's Implications
The signing of US President Donald Trump's so-called Iran 'peace deal' on Friday will signal the end of US dominance across the Middle East. Just about everything he has said about it is a lie, not a peace deal. It is a multi-hundred billion dollar retreat from a war that abandons Israel and US allies. The United States, if we are to believe leaks on the Trump settlement, will concede everything, achieve nothing and will give away leverage over Iran.
Dressed in diplomatic clothing the MOU is the beginning of a withdrawal by the US and Iran appears to be conceding not one aspect of the crisis. And it is not even a deal - it is framework to decide on issues to be discussed over 60 days.
Iran is likely winning on refusing to concede on everything - nothing on missiles, nothing on its continued relationship with it proxies and nothing on enriched uranium. Hard to believe but it will not even concede on its nuclear programme, securing a mere promise not to build a nuclear weapon - something it has declared for years anyway.
Strait of Hormuz
The only glimmer of success will be the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, eventually. And even that is not a victory because it was open and unrestricted before the war and now it will be controlled by Iran and Oman and it is possible toll fees will be imposed. Every single debating point on Tehran's certain policy of exporting terrorism and espionage globally will be deferred to a later date, along with Iran's atomic issue.
Financial and Military Consequences
Hundreds of billions in dollars will be paid to Tehran, with a sleazy upfront envelope of some £10billion during the next 60 days much of which, the Israelis have warned Trump, will go to Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. That is after the regime have had their bung. The majority of Israelis are incredulous, flabbergasted that they are being told war on its neighbouring threat Hezbollah must end, along with the right to defend against the biggest threat on their doorstep.
Israel's Position
Ever since the October 7 2023 atrocities committed by Hamas triggered Israel's wars against Hamas, Hezbollah, Syrian and Iraqi groups and the Houthis, Iran has been losing. And losing in a large way. It has lost its hard-won Shia crescent sweeping from Tehran, across northern Iraq, Syria and all the way through Lebanon to the border with Israel. Years of post 1979 revolution campaigning, espionage, terrorism, strategic chicanery was lost to Israel's intelligence agency victories. There was the Mossad mobile/ pager bomb plot which killed hundreds of Hezbollah operatives, the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, once dubbed the Shia bin Laden.
Hundreds of Hezbollah commanders killed, thousands of fighters now dead. Hamas in Gaza decimated, along with the terrible civilian toll, at least 70,000 killed. Seemingly endless Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, Iran's Iraqi proxies made it seem Iran, finally, had lost its incredible campaign of hegemony across the Middle East and all the way to South America. But its policy of 'strategic patience' and resilience has finally gained a major win, victory over the US, hundreds of billions of dollars in peace bribes and global humiliation against what it calls the Great Satan.
Regional Reactions
Trump's catastrophic war has facilitated an Iran comeback and the Middle East and America's chief ally in the region is furious. Most importantly Israel will likely have to defy US instruction for there to be no more military action in Lebanon in a major concession to Hezbollah. Richard Pater, director of the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre told me: 'We have moved from an American administration touting regime change, to reportedly promising hundreds of billions to prop up a fundamentalist regime that has murdered tens of thousands of its own citizens.'
'And we have moved from promises of peace between Israel and Lebanon to rubber stamping Iranian influence in Lebanon in the form of Hezbollah. It is also incredibly worrying that the US appears to have acceded to Iranian demands to link between the Islamic Republic in Iran and its proxy undermining sovereignty in Lebanon. For decades it has been a long established US position through consecutive administrations of both Democrats and Republicans that Hezbollah is a proscribed terrorist organisation responsible for the deaths of US citizens.'
'Israel won't want to directly contradict and certainly not antagonise the US government, but as any self-respecting sovereign country - they will do all they need to do to protect their civilians and defend their national interests.' US forces will have to withdraw from around Iran, leaving shipping vulnerable to Iran, the US blockade lifted, further allowing Iranian trade.
Negotiation Points
Under discussion over the next 60 days, with it highly unlikely there will be a resolution on the nuclear issue are the following points:
- An end to fighting, including in Lebanon - the most devastating promise to Israel which will have to defy its biggest ally the US.
- The US must commit not to interfering in Iran.
- America's naval blockade will be lifted in 30 days and the re-opening of Strait of Hormuz will happen over the next 30 days.
- Oil sanctions will be lifted and the US must give $300billion in reparations and there will be a 60-day negotiation on nuclear programme and sanctions lifting.
Iran must promise not to build a nuclear weapon and there will be no new sanctions or reinforcing of US forces in region. There will be $24 billion pay to Iran - half of its before the end of the 60 days and an oversight mechanism imposed for implementation of the agreement The UN Security Council must agree finally to all of these points.
Final negotiations will take place after half of frozen assets are unfrozen, oil sanction suspended and the naval blockade stopped. Final agreement will only cover enrichment, sanctions lifting, and the economic rehabilitation of Iran. Crucially Iran missile programme and support for resistance groups have been, it is claimed, lifted from the agenda.
