Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts, and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change, according to research by Harvard political scientist Erica Chenoweth.
In 1986, millions of Filipinos took to the streets of Manila in peaceful protest and prayer in the People Power movement, leading to the collapse of the Marcos regime on the fourth day. Similarly, in 2003, Georgia's Rose Revolution ousted Eduard Shevardnadze, and in 2019, the presidents of Sudan and Algeria stepped aside after decades in office due to peaceful campaigns.
Chenoweth's research, conducted with Maria Stephan, analysed 323 violent and nonviolent campaigns from 1900 to 2006. They found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent ones, and that active participation by around 3.5% of the population ensures serious political change.
Chenoweth initially doubted the power of nonviolent resistance, but her findings have influenced movements like Extinction Rebellion. She notes that while historical figures like Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King advocated peaceful protest, her data provides robust evidence for its effectiveness.
