Net migration to the UK is predicted to fall to around 300,000, less than a third of 2023's figures, according to new data from the British Future thinktank. The forecast suggests the numbers could return to pre-Brexit levels, with official figures due to be released on Thursday.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently revised its estimates, showing net migration peaked at 944,000 in the year to March 2023, higher than previously thought. However, using new methodology, cumulative net migration from 2021 to 2024 was about 97,000 lower than earlier estimates. The ONS now estimates net migration fell to 345,000 in the year to December 2024, driven by an increase in emigration by UK nationals.
Despite the decline, public perception lags behind reality. Research by Ipsos/British Future found that only 16% of the public expect net migration to be lower in a year's time, while 38% expect it to increase. Most people (56%) believe immigration increased last year, when in fact it halved.
Government proposals released last week, which restrict settlement and benefits for migrants, are more restrictive than what half the public would choose. Dissatisfaction with the government's handling of immigration stands at 56%, up from 48% last summer, with 73% of dissatisfied respondents citing insufficient action to stop migrant channel crossings.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said: 'Net migration is falling, with today’s figures likely to show another drop towards pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000 – yet our political debate hasn’t caught up.' He warned that constant crisis messaging risks reinforcing public belief that asylum and immigration are out of control.
The figures come as the Home Office faces an additional £1.4bn in spending due to a near 20% rise in small boat arrivals and an 8% increase in asylum seekers in supported accommodation, according to an OBR document released ahead of the budget.
