UK Net Migration Forecasts Revised Downwards as British Exodus Grows
The Office for Budget Responsibility has significantly reduced its projections for net migration to the United Kingdom, with new forecasts indicating an average annual figure of 235,000 between 2026 and 2030. This represents a substantial decrease of 60,000 per year compared to the watchdog's previous estimate of 295,000 published in November last year. The OBR attributes this downward revision entirely to a more negative assumption regarding net migration by British nationals, who are increasingly choosing to leave the country.
Detailed Migration Projections and Economic Implications
In its latest forecast, released alongside Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Spring Statement, the OBR provided specific yearly projections. Net migration is anticipated to be 200,000 in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 262,000. The figure is then expected to climb gradually each year, reaching 281,000 by 2030, which remains notably lower than the earlier projection of 340,000 for that year. The OBR emphasised that the level of net migration exerts a significant impact on real GDP, highlighting the broader economic consequences of these demographic shifts.
The budget watchdog pointed to recent revisions by the Office for National Statistics, which lowered estimates for recent net inward migration primarily due to higher estimated emigration by British citizens. This trend marks a notable shift in migration patterns, with the ONS reporting that net migration fell to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, representing a 69% year-on-year decrease from 649,000 during the previous twelve months. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer described this decline as a step in the right direction following what he termed unprecedented net migration levels in recent years.
Economic Growth Forecasts and Political Reactions
Chancellor Rachel Reeves addressed these migration changes in her Spring Statement, asserting she has the right economic plan for Britain despite the OBR simultaneously reducing its economic growth forecast for this year. The watchdog now predicts GDP will increase by 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.4% in its November forecast, though it upgraded projections for 2027 and 2028 from 1.5% to 1.6%. Reeves noted that average growth across the next five years remains largely unchanged despite the current year's downgrade, which accounts for the fall in net migration.
Think tanks have offered varied perspectives on these developments. Harry Quilter-Pinner, executive director of the IPPR, warned that lower net migration poses a medium-term risk to public finances. The Resolution Foundation suggested the projected decline will be claimed as a political win for the Government, but clarified that it is entirely driven by more British people leaving the UK, rather than fewer foreign nationals arriving. This distinction underscores the complex nature of current migration trends.
Historical Context and Migration Patterns
Recent ONS data reveals that net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 before declining sharply. In the year to June 2025, an estimated 898,000 people immigrated to the UK while 693,000 emigrated, resulting in the net figure of 204,000. The ONS identified key drivers behind this decrease, including fewer arrivals from outside the European Union for work or study purposes, coupled with an increase in people moving out of the country. This evolving landscape continues to shape population estimates and economic planning for the coming years.
