Police Analysis Warns of Massive Scale in Spain's Migrant Legalisation Plan
A confidential police report has revealed that Spain's proposed migrant regularisation programme could grant legal status to between one million and 1.35 million undocumented individuals, more than double the government's public estimate of approximately 500,000 beneficiaries. The analysis, prepared by the National Centre for Immigration and Borders (CNIF), suggests the socialist government's initiative may have far broader implications than previously acknowledged.
Detailed Projections Exceed Official Estimates
According to the CNIF document dated January 29, between 750,000 and one million undocumented migrants currently residing in Spain would likely apply for legal status under the proposed scheme. The analysis further indicates that an additional 250,000 to 350,000 asylum seekers could also submit applications, potentially bringing the total number of applicants to between one million and 1.35 million people.
These figures starkly contrast with the public estimates cited by Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who has repeatedly referenced approximately 500,000 beneficiaries. The police report, obtained by El Confidencial news site, suggests most applicants would succeed in obtaining legal status, raising questions about the programme's ultimate scale.
Eligibility Requirements and Pathway to Citizenship
The proposed regularisation programme would grant accelerated residence permits to undocumented migrants who can prove residence in Spain before December 31, 2025, and demonstrate at least five months of continuous stay without accruing a criminal record. The permits would be valid for one year, or five years for children, with provisions for subsequent extensions.
After maintaining legal residence for ten years, migrants could become Spanish citizens, with accelerated pathways available for those originating from Latin American countries or holding refugee status. This represents a significant opportunity for hundreds of thousands currently living in Spain without documentation.
Potential Broader Migration Effects
The CNIF document warns that the programme could trigger broader migratory effects, citing what it describes as an "international perception of Spain as more permissive with irregular immigration." Police analysts predict "secondary movements" of between 200,000 and 250,000 undocumented migrants per year from other Schengen-area countries into Spain over the medium to long term.
Additionally, experts forecast a "shift of maritime migration routes" from the central and eastern Mediterranean toward Spain, potentially increasing sea arrivals by 6,000 to 12,000 annually. Unlike numerous European Union member states including Germany, Italy and Poland, Spain has not reinstated internal Schengen border measures, potentially facilitating such movements.
Political Controversy and Opposition Criticism
The socialist government's initiative has sparked intense political controversy, with the main opposition conservative Popular Party (PP) and far-right Vox party strongly criticising the plan. PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo warned the scheme would "increase the pull effect and overwhelm our public services" while exacerbating Spain's housing crisis.
"This plan comes at a time when rents and home prices are breaking records and working-class families are being squeezed out of cities," Feijóo stated. "Adding hundreds of thousands more people to a labour market already straining under a serious housing crisis will compound those problems, not solve them."
Vox leader Santiago Abascal accused the socialist-led coalition of accelerating what he termed an "invasion," while party spokeswoman Pepa Millán pledged to appeal before the Supreme Court in an attempt to block the initiative, claiming it "attacks our identity."
Government Defence and Economic Justification
Prime Minister Sánchez has vigorously defended the scheme, arguing that Spain faces demographic challenges including an ageing population and low birth rate that necessitate immigration to sustain the workforce and maintain the pension system. "Immigrants represent wealth, development and prosperity for Spain," Sánchez stated, pointing to their contribution to the country's social security system.
Migration Minister Elma Saiz emphasised that the government is "reinforcing a migratory model based on human rights, integration, co-existence and which is compatible with economic growth and social cohesion." She noted that economists have attributed Spain's declining unemployment and economic growth in part to its openness to migrants.
Economic Context and Demographic Realities
Spain's economic performance provides important context for the debate. The country expanded by 2.8 percent last year, more than twice the average expected across the entire eurozone. Unemployment, a longstanding issue in the Spanish economy, has dipped below 10 percent for the first time since 2008.
According to a Funcas study, foreign-born workers were responsible for 4.2 percentage points of Spain's 8.9 percent GDP growth between 2022 and 2025, while the foreign-born working-age population grew by 1.9 million. In the past three years alone, Spain's population increased by 1.5 million to 48.9 million, with almost all the increase attributable to immigration.
However, economic benefits have not been evenly distributed. With about 90 percent of new jobs going to immigrants, income per person has barely grown in Spain. Additionally, the country faces a significant housing shortage, with approximately 140,000 new households forming each year but only about 80,000 new homes being built.
Historical Precedents and International Attention
Since Spain's return to democracy in 1975, the country has carried out several extraordinary schemes to grant migrants legal status. Between 1986 and 2005, legal status was granted to 1.2 million people through nine such efforts, according to the Migration Policy Institute Europe.
The current initiative has attracted international attention, including from tech billionaire Elon Musk, who commented on the plan via his social media platform X. Sánchez responded to Musk's criticism with the message: "Mars can wait. Humanity can't," referencing Musk's aerospace company SpaceX and its development of the Starship rocket for Mars colonisation.
Implementation Challenges and Public Sentiment
Because the socialist-led coalition lacks a majority in parliament, the initiative is scheduled to be approved by royal decree rather than through standard legislative channels. This approach has drawn criticism from opposition parties who argue it bypasses proper democratic scrutiny.
Public disquiet about immigration has grown in Spain, with polls indicating immigration now ranks among voters' top concerns alongside housing and unemployment. Analysts have warned that without complementary policies addressing housing supply and integration, the regularisation scheme could harden public sentiment further, potentially giving momentum to opposition parties' hardline anti-immigration stances.
The programme's implementation is already visible on the ground, with hundreds of Pakistani nationals queuing outside their country's consulate in Barcelona's Eixample district last month to apply for criminal record certificates required for the regularisation process. Latin Americans, who make up 70 percent of recent arrivals to Spain, are expected to constitute a significant portion of applicants.
As Spain navigates this contentious policy debate, the country finds itself at a crossroads between demographic necessity, economic pragmatism, and growing political polarisation over immigration's role in Spanish society.
