Britain's foremost polling expert has issued a stark warning that the Conservative Party could face a more severe electoral impact than Labour following the government's decision to abandon plans for postponing local elections in thirty key areas. Sir John Curtice, writing in The Independent, detailed how this reversal places significant pressure on Tory strongholds now forced to organise May ballots.
Strategic Setback for Conservatives in County Councils
Sir John Curtice explained that while Labour was always anticipated to encounter difficulties in the upcoming May polls, the Conservatives now confront substantial challenges from Reform UK in crucial counties that had initially been granted permission to delay their elections. Despite a greater number of Labour-controlled councils originally slated for postponement, the Tories have compelling reasons to lament the policy reversal.
Four Major Tory Councils Now Exposed
The pollster highlighted that four large Conservative-majority county councils – Norfolk, Suffolk, East Sussex, and West Sussex – must now hastily organise local elections. These councils represent over two-fifths of all seats where elections had been postponed. Consequently, a slightly higher number of Conservative councillors than Labour councillors find themselves unexpectedly required to defend their positions.
Sir John Curtice stated, "Although it was mostly relatively small Labour councils where only a third of the seats are up for grabs that opted for postponement, so also did three county councils under Tory control and a fourth where the Conservatives are the largest party."
Reform UK Threat Looms Large in Shire Counties
In addition to the four county councils, Conservative-controlled Harlow district council will also now have to conduct local elections in May. Sir John warns that these councils are situated in regions where the Conservative Party, under Kemi Badenoch's leadership, faces a particular threat from Nigel Farage's Reform UK.
"Norfolk and Suffolk, East and West Sussex… these are just the kind of shire Tory councils where Reform made a breakthrough in last year's local elections," he writes. "Kemi Badenoch will be concerned Nigel Farage could now register a repeat performance."
Government's Humiliating U-Turn on Postponements
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was compelled to reverse the plans to postpone elections across thirty councils this May after receiving legal advice that such delays would be unlawful. This decision marks yet another embarrassing policy reversal for the government, which had previously justified the postponements by citing requests from local councils.
The government argued that councils lacked sufficient resources due to ongoing efforts to abolish two-tier authorities and merge them into single unitary councils by 2028. Last month, Local Government Secretary Steve Reed confirmed that twenty-nine of the 136 council elections scheduled for this year would be delayed until 2027, with one additional council later receiving permission for postponement.
Widespread Criticism and Political Allegations
The Electoral Commission had previously criticised the proposed delays, warning that they risked "damaging public confidence." Opposition parties have accused the government of politically motivated postponements, while local authority leaders have expressed frustration over the abrupt policy change.
Kay Mason Billig, leader of Conservative-run Norfolk County Council, remarked, "I note the government's change of mind on yet another decision it couldn't stick to – wasting everyone's time." Meanwhile, Matthew Hicks, leader of Suffolk County Council, said local authorities are "experiencing whiplash" from government decisions that make effective planning for residents nearly impossible.
A spokesperson for East Sussex County Council added that the authority's workload will "intensify" with the "added demand" of organising a vote, further straining resources and administrative capacity.
