A Pollster's Nightmare: The High-Stakes Three-Way Battle for Gorton and Denton
Westminster byelections are frequently bruising affairs, but the contest for Gorton and Denton stands out as one of the most unpredictable and consequential battles in recent political memory. Labour is engaged in a desperate struggle to maintain its 13,000-vote majority against challenges from both Reform UK and the surging Green party. This follows the retirement of Andrew Gwynne, who stepped down last month amidst the controversial "Trigger Me Timbers" WhatsApp scandal.
Labour's Emotional Fight for Survival
Labour's candidate, Angeliki Stogia, who arrived in Britain from Greece as a student in 1995, has framed this contest in deeply personal terms. Sitting tearfully in a Denton cafe this week, Stogia expressed her anger at Reform UK's presence in her community. "I am very, very angry. How dare they come here and spread this division?" she said, her voice breaking with emotion. "For them, this is a show. For me, this is my community. This is my people."
Stogia's campaign faces multiple challenges. Sir Keir Starmer's government remains engulfed in crisis over Peter Mandelson's connections to Jeffrey Epstein, and a defeat on 26 February could trigger renewed calls for the prime minister's resignation. The Labour candidate has accused the Green party of "lying" to voters by distributing leaflets containing what she calls a "misleading" chart suggesting only the Greens can defeat Reform UK.
"I worry that we will lose it," Stogia warned. "Every Green vote is going to make Reform very happy." She pointed to last year's Runcorn and Helsby byelection, where a split left vote allowed Reform UK to win by a mere six votes.
The Green Party's Surprising Ascent
In a remarkable political development, the Green party has become the bookmakers' favourite less than three weeks before polling day. Their candidate, 34-year-old plumber Hannah Spencer, has achieved something approaching local celebrity status despite only joining the party three years ago. Originally from Bolton, Spencer has quickly risen through Green party ranks, becoming a councillor and emerging as a rising star in the mould of the party's new eco-populist leadership.
Spencer's campaign focuses less on traditional environmental issues and more on practical concerns like the cost of living, housing, and crime. She pounds the streets with her four rescue greyhounds, presenting herself as a working-class alternative to what she calls Reform UK's "TV presenter" candidate. "He's just been bussed in," Spencer said of her Reform opponent Matt Goodwin. "He's just a TV presenter who wants to further his own career, and I've proved that I will work."
The Green campaign has attracted enthusiastic support from volunteers who have travelled from as far as Birmingham, Barnsley, and Belper to distribute 40,000 leaflets in a single day. Despite having no councillors in the constituency and finishing 14,000 votes behind Labour in 2024, the Greens have gained significant momentum through strategic alliances. Both George Galloway's Workers party and Jeremy Corbyn's Your Party have encouraged their supporters to back Spencer, as has the campaign group The Muslim Vote.
Reform UK's Strategic Positioning
Reform UK opened its campaign headquarters in Greater Manchester this week with Nigel Farage cutting the ceremonial ribbon alongside candidate Matt Goodwin, an academic turned GB News polemicist. The party hopes to replicate its success in Runcorn and Helsby by capitalising on divisions within the left-wing vote.
Professor Robert Ford of the University of Manchester explained the electoral dynamics: "The key to understanding this byelection is that for every vote on the Farage-friendly Denton side, there are two votes on the larger, more diverse and left-leaning Manchester side." In 2024, nearly 80% of the constituency supported parties on the left, meaning Reform UK's only realistic path to victory requires significant vote-splitting between Labour and the Greens.
Community Voices and Electoral Calculations
Across the constituency, voters express mixed sentiments that reflect the complex political landscape. In Longsight, Ghulam Ghaus, a 73-year-old Labour party member, plans to vote for the party out of familiarity rather than enthusiasm. "The Green party have good policies but they're not so well known – you only see them on election day," he said, citing Gaza, inflation, and local crime as his primary concerns.
Catherine O'Connor, a 66-year-old retired cleaner who typically votes Labour, has decided to switch to the Green party this time. "That Starmer's not much good, is he?" she remarked, while rejecting Reform UK's hardline immigration policies. "We're a multicultural country – we've got to get on with one another."
In Denton, retired transport manager Alf Warrender explained his intention to vote for Reform UK despite being a Green sympathiser. "If I thought the Greens would get in, I would vote Green," he said, taking a "Hannah the plumber" leaflet from Spencer. "I'm not a fan of Reform but I'm even less of a fan of Labour." His wife Jo, however, plans to vote Green, creating a household divided along the very lines that make this election so unpredictable.
The Muslim Vote and Political Realignments
Approximately 28% of the constituency identifies as Muslim according to the latest census, with that proportion rising to at least half in former Labour strongholds like Longsight and Levenshulme. Lucy Powell, Labour's deputy leader and MP for neighbouring Manchester Central, argued that it was "lazy" to assume the pro-Palestinian vote would automatically switch to the Greens. She noted that anger over Gaza was "not as vociferous" against Labour as it was in 2024, claiming she was "treated like a Hollywood star" during a recent mosque visit.
Sources close to George Galloway revealed that the 71-year-old former Labour MP had been prepared to stand in the byelection – which would have been his eighth electoral contest since 2010 – but only if Andy Burnham had been selected as Labour's candidate. When Sir Keir Starmer's allies blocked the Greater Manchester mayor from standing, Galloway was stood down, and his team decided against fielding a candidate after meetings with Green party officials.
An Unpredictable Conclusion
As Professor Ford observed, the only certainty about this election is that it represents a "pollster's nightmare." "Three parties could win, and each can tell a plausible story now about how they might do it," he said. With Labour fighting on multiple fronts, the Greens demonstrating unexpected strength, and Reform UK hoping to benefit from left-wing divisions, the outcome remains genuinely uncertain.
Back in Cafe Plus in Denton, Angeliki Stogia made one final plea before rushing to her next campaign event: "I want people to give me a chance. Give me a chance. I'm fighting at every level. I'm fighting the lies. I'm fighting at a national level. It feels positive but we've got a fight on our hands." Her words capture the intensity of a contest that could reshape political calculations far beyond this diverse patch of south-east Manchester.
