Early Voting Commences for Texas Primary Elections Amid High-Stakes Political Showdown
Early voting has officially begun in Texas for the state's primary elections, scheduled for 3 March, marking the start of a pivotal political season that could shape the fiercest Senate races of the 2026 midterm cycle. In the largest red state in the US, both Republicans and Democrats are facing critical choices that will determine their nominees for upcoming statewide contests.
Republican Rivalry: Establishment vs. MAGA Insurgency
On the Republican side, a contentious battle is unfolding between four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn and the state's scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cornyn, a conservative fixture in Senate leadership, is locked in a fierce fight for his political survival against Paxton, who frames the race as a clash between Trump's MAGA movement and the Republican establishment.
Paxton, who was impeached by the Republican-led Texas House in 2023 on charges including bribery and abuse of office before being acquitted by the state senate, has leveraged his record of high-profile legal fights over immigration, abortion, and federal policies to garner a devoted rightwing following. He recently mocked Cornyn's institutional support, stating, "Nothing moves the base like being endorsed by the Houston Chronicle."
Meanwhile, wealthy Republican donors have rallied to support Cornyn, warning that a Paxton nomination could force the party to divert resources into a race that would otherwise remain safely in their column. A third candidate, US Representative Wesley Hunt, has aligned himself closely with Trump, offering an alternative for voters dissatisfied with both Cornyn and Paxton.
Democratic Dilemma: Style and Strategy in a Red State
Democrats, who have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, are waging their own internal battle between two rising liberal stars. Representative Jasmine Crockett, a 44-year-old civil rights attorney and media darling known for her sharp-tongued clapbacks to Republicans, argues that Democrats need a fighter to galvanize disaffected voters. In contrast, state senator James Talarico, a former public school teacher and seminarian, positions himself as a bridge-builder with appeal beyond the party's base, emphasizing unity over division.
A recent University of Houston survey shows Crockett leading Talarico 47% to 39% among likely Democratic primary voters, with both candidates enjoying broad popularity. The race has become intensely online, driven by influencers and content creators, amplifying tensions within the party over identity, race, and electability.
Political Climate and Voter Sentiment
The political climate in Texas is shifting, with Democrats sensing an opening amid Trump's sagging approval ratings and economic unease. Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University, notes that while Republicans start with an advantage, national headwinds could complicate their path, reminiscent of the 2018 mood when Beto O'Rourke nearly unseated Senator Ted Cruz.
James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, suggests that nominating Paxton would make victory more costly for Republicans but not impossible, especially with popular figures like Governor Greg Abbott on the ballot. However, if Paxton secures the nomination, it could prompt national Democrats to reconsider investing in Texas, a state they have long hoped to flip.
As early voting progresses, all eyes are on the potential for a May runoff in the Republican primary, given Texas's requirement for a majority to secure the nomination. With Trump's endorsement still pending, the dynamics of the race remain fluid, setting the stage for a dramatic political showdown in the Lone Star State.
