Starmer's Election U-Turn Poses Equal Threat to Both Labour and Tories
Labour's decision to reverse the postponement of local elections for 30 English councils on May 7, following court action by Reform UK, represents a significant embarrassment for the government. This U-turn forces local authorities, many of which are Labour-run, to abruptly resume election preparations after being told they could stand down due to local government reorganisation efforts.
Limited Impact on Labour's Electoral Prospects
Despite the political fallout, the implications for Labour's prospects in the local elections are not as severe as they might appear. The postponements primarily involved relatively small councils, where collectively less than 700 council seats were due to be contested. This accounts for just one in eight of the seats originally expected to be up for election.
Elections in London, with 1,800 seats at stake, and those in and around England's larger provincial cities, involving another thousand seats, were always scheduled to proceed. These areas represent prime Labour territory that is now under threat given the party's dire position in the polls.
In London, Labour's strongest region in Britain, the party controls 21 of the 32 boroughs from the 2022 elections. Every seat is up for election again this year, with the Greens posing a notable challenge. Similarly, Labour controls 25 of the 32 metropolitan councils in provincial cities, where half have all seats contested, including Leave-voting areas like Barnsley and Sunderland where Reform UK aims for breakthroughs.
Broader Electoral Context and Devolved Nations
The devolved elections in Scotland and Wales are proceeding as planned, with polls indicating Labour could finish third in both regions. In Wales, where Labour has governed since 1999, a defeat would be cataclysmic, marking the first loss since 1931.
Conservatives Face Equal Peril from Reinstated Elections
The reversal of the postponement decision also poses significant risks for the Conservatives. While most postponements involved Labour councils, three Tory-controlled county councils and a fourth where Conservatives are the largest party also opted to delay. These four councils account for over two in five of all postponed seats.
As a result, the total number of Conservative councillors now required to defend their seats slightly exceeds that of Labour councillors. Shire councils in areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, East Sussex, and West Sussex are particularly vulnerable, as Reform UK made breakthroughs in similar Tory strongholds during last year's local elections.
This situation raises concerns for figures like Kemi Badenoch, who fear Nigel Farage's party could repeat its performance, further eroding Conservative support in traditional heartlands.
John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University and senior fellow at the National Centre for Social Research.
