One of the Republican Party's most senior strategists has issued a stark warning that the GOP could face devastating losses in the crucial 2026 midterm elections unless it urgently develops a coherent policy platform.
A Party 'Scared to Death' of the Upcoming Vote
Karl Rove, the former senior advisor and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush, delivered a sobering assessment on Fox News' Journal Editorial Report. He argued that the political fallout from the historic 2025 government shutdown, combined with the delayed benefits of former President Donald Trump's signature 'Big, Beautiful Bill', has left Congressional Republicans 'scared to death of the midterm election.'
Rove pointed to Trump's languishing approval ratings as evidence that the promised economic boost from the bill has not materialised swiftly enough for voters. "If the president’s 'big, beautiful bill' was as instantaneously positive as he thinks, his approval numbers on the economy wouldn’t be in the 30s, and his overall approval wouldn’t be in the low 40s," Rove stated.
The Dual Imperative: Economy and Healthcare
The veteran strategist emphasised that his party is currently lacking a forward-looking agenda. To avoid electoral disaster, he urged Republicans to heed the famous advice of Democratic strategist James Carville: 'It’s the economy, stupid.' However, Rove was quick to note Carville's crucial addendum, which he believes the GOP is ignoring at its peril: 'And don’t forget health care.'
"The Republicans have got to have a health care agenda, otherwise they’re going to be in deep trouble," Rove declared. This issue was central to the recent government shutdown, where Democrats fought Republican efforts to cut Medicaid and Affordable Care Act subsidies.
Internal Pessimism and Democratic Momentum
Pessimism appears to be spreading within Republican ranks. Former President Trump himself admitted on his Truth Social platform that he believes Democrats are 'more likely to win the Midterms, and the next Presidential Election.' During the shutdown—the longest in American history—Trump had controversially called for an end to the Senate filibuster to allow his party to pass legislation regardless of the midterm results.
This gloomy outlook was echoed by former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who turned on Trump in recent months. Greene, who resigned her Georgia seat in November 2025, warned of 'Republicans losing the House if Americans are continuing to go from paycheck-to-paycheck.' She also criticised the administration's failure to negotiate with Democrats on insurance premium reforms, calling it an 'America Last strategy.'
Meanwhile, Democratic optimism is growing following key victories on 5 November 2025 in the New York City mayoral race and gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey. Despite this momentum, a July poll by Democratic Super PAC Unite the Country found the party is still perceived by many voters as 'out of touch,' 'weak,' and overly 'woke,' particularly on the cost of living.
Rove concluded with a dire prediction for his party if it fails to act: 'So Republicans are concerned, and they need to have an agenda going into the 2026 midterms, and they don’t have a forward-looking agenda at this moment.' With control of the House and Senate at stake—and with it, Trump's ability to pass legislation—the warning from one of the GOP's own master tacticians could not be more clear.
