Reform UK has consistently held a commanding lead in national opinion polls since autumn 2025, averaging a nine to ten-point advantage over rival parties. This sustained dominance marks a significant shift in the political landscape, with the party polling ahead of all competitors on more than 170 occasions according to detailed Press Association analysis.
Historical Polling Trajectory
Following the July 2024 general election, Labour initially led the polls with Conservatives in second place and Reform UK occupying third position. However, Labour's support began to decline towards the end of 2024 as Reform UK's numbers steadily increased, while the Conservative Party also experienced a noticeable drop in polling figures.
Establishing Consistent Dominance
Reform UK first demonstrated polling strength in January and February 2025, occasionally surpassing Labour but without establishing consistent leadership. During this period, the party sometimes ranked second, ahead of Labour but behind the Conservatives. The pivotal moment arrived in early May 2025, coinciding with the final set of local elections, when Reform UK definitively pulled ahead of both major parties.
Since that crucial turning point, Reform UK has maintained its polling advantage in at least 173 separate surveys. This comprehensive analysis draws upon data compiled by the Press Association from ten leading polling organisations: BMG, FindOutNow, FocalData, Ipsos, JL Partners, More in Common, Opinium, Survation, TechneUK and YouGov.
Evolution of Reform UK's Lead
The party's polling advantage has demonstrated remarkable stability over time. Initially averaging five to six percentage points during May and June 2025, Reform UK's lead expanded to reach nine to ten points by September 2025. This elevated level has remained broadly consistent throughout the subsequent months, indicating sustained public support.
Current Polling Landscape
The most recent poll averages, covering the week ending February 15, 2026, reveal Reform UK commanding 29% support. Labour and the Conservative Party are tied at 19% each, while the Greens register 15% and the Liberal Democrats stand at 13%. This configuration represents a dramatic realignment of British political preferences compared to traditional party standings.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage now hopes this substantial national polling advantage will translate into tangible electoral success. The immediate test arrives with the Gorton & Denton by-election scheduled for February 26, where Reform UK candidate Matt Goodwin seeks to convert polling numbers into actual votes. This contest serves as a crucial indicator of whether the party's sustained opinion poll dominance can be effectively mobilised in specific constituency battles.
