Angela Rayner Cools Leadership Ambitions as Labour Faces Dire Election Forecast
Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, is said to have cooled on plans to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership following the upcoming local elections. This shift comes despite a new poll suggesting Starmer is leading the party toward one of its worst-ever electoral results. Rayner, widely viewed as a frontrunner to replace Sir Keir if he were ousted by MPs after the May 7 poll, has instead shown unity on the campaign trail.
Public Displays of Unity Amid Internal Tensions
This week, Rayner posed with Sir Keir and fellow mooted leadership challenger Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, during campaign events. The trio appeared united, sharing a joke while sitting with schoolchildren in her Ashton-under-Lyne constituency. However, Rayner has become increasingly vocal in her criticism of the government in recent weeks, attacking plans to make it harder for immigrants to settle permanently and arguing Labour is "running out of time" to deliver. These comments have fueled speculation she is positioning herself to succeed Sir Keir should he quit.
Additionally, Rayner is understood to have decided to back the government's planned reforms to special needs education (Send), according to reports from the Times. Labour MPs, including those not aligned with Sir Keir, have indicated that the chances of a leadership coup following a poor election result are now slim. Many are unwilling to move while a war between the US and Iran causes major economic fallout in the UK.
Poll Predicts Labour's Electoral Struggles
A new JL Partners MRP analysis, conducted for the Telegraph, suggests Labour is on course to lose control of half of the councils it currently controls. The poll indicates Labour could win control of only 42 authorities, with half of those in London, compared to the 83 it controls or leads in a coalition going into the May 7 vote. Labour councils are under threat in cities like Manchester, Leeds, and Sheffield, as well as wider areas of the North West, North East, and Yorkshire.
In a surprising twist, Nigel Farage's Reform party could win control of as many as 69 councils, half of the 136 being contested across England. Reform is making inroads in Labour's Red Wall and Tory areas of Eastern England, with Manchester potentially going Green and others like Sunderland and Barnsley leaning towards Reform. Reform is also on course to win control of Essex from the Tories, whose leader Kemi Badenoch is an MP in the county, along with Norfolk and Suffolk.
Rayner's Campaign Focus and Future Prospects
Rayner is spending a month supporting Labour candidates ahead of the difficult May 7 vote, aiming to help them win or hold onto seats at a time when the party and its leader are deeply unpopular. Supporters say this effort is also a way for Rayner to boost her own profile as a "street fighter" within the party. Meanwhile, Andy Burnham has echoed Rayner's sentiments, stating he knows "where she's coming from" and understands "the frustration people feel" following Labour's defeat to the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
As the local elections approach, the political landscape remains volatile, with internal Labour dynamics and external challenges from parties like Reform shaping the outcome. Rayner's cooled ambitions and the poll's grim predictions highlight the pressures facing Labour as it navigates a critical period in British politics.
