The two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, announced by US President Donald Trump, has been met with competing claims of victory from both the US and Iran, but analysis suggests neither is accurate. The pause in hostilities, while welcome, may not signal an end to the war or last its full duration, according to observers.
President Trump stated that Iran had undergone regime change, but reports indicate that less experienced, more hardline figures are now in charge. He also claimed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, yet Iran countered that ships would require permission and payment. By Wednesday evening, Iranian state media reported the strait was closed again after Israeli strikes on Lebanon, a point of contention as Iran insisted Lebanon was part of the deal while Mr Trump disagreed.
The conflict has resulted in thousands of deaths, including children, and widespread trauma. War crimes have been openly boasted by aggressors. The US has spent tens of billions of dollars, depleting interceptors and straining alliances. The war has also spooked markets, raised domestic prices, and shown signs of fracturing Mr Trump's political base.
Israel, having persuaded the US to join forces against Iran, has not achieved its stated aims and now faces a weaker but less predictable adversary. Its relations with Gulf states have soured, and US public opinion has turned more decisively against it. The Iranian regime, while surviving, has lost senior leaders, suffered severe economic damage, and faces likely increased repression.
Gulf powers, who did not want the war, are angered by the US stepping back while leaving a still-dangerous Iran. Their tourism and investment reputations are damaged, and key sea routes remain disrupted. The war has destabilised the region and normalised talk of war crimes, undermining the rules-based international order.
The main beneficiaries appear to be arms manufacturers, Russia, and China. This represents a strategic defeat for the US that will have long-term repercussions, though President Trump may continue to claim it as a triumph despite the reality.
