US-Iran Nuclear Talks Go to the Wire as Trump Threatens Military Action
High-stakes negotiations between the United States and Iran over a permanent resolution to Tehran's nuclear programme continued late into Thursday night in Geneva, with apparent gaps between the two sides leaving open the possibility of an unprecedented punitive military assault by former US President Donald Trump. The extension of talks into the evening suggested significant differences remain, heightening tensions across the Middle East.
Diplomatic Efforts Amid Rising Tensions
Iran's foreign ministry attempted to downplay suggestions that the talks had broken down, insisting that new ideas had been raised requiring further consultation in both capitals. To the frustration of Tehran's team, the lead US negotiator, Steve Witkoff, had to temporarily break off discussions with Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, to attend separate talks with Ukrainian negotiators before a planned return. Omani mediators also rejected talk of a breakdown, claiming that new and creative ideas were being exchanged with an unprecedented openness in what was billed as a third decisive round of indirect consultations.
The United States is demanding permanent Iranian guarantees on uranium enrichment and inspection mechanisms to ensure Tehran cannot build a nuclear weapon, a goal Iran has consistently denied. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has additionally highlighted Iran's refusal to discuss its ballistic missile programme as a problem, prompting complaints from Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, about inconsistencies in US negotiating demands.
Military Buildup and Nuclear Disputes
The talks are occurring against the backdrop of Trump's unprecedented buildup of US military assets in the region, including two aircraft carrier strike groups, attack aircraft, refuelling equipment, and submarines equipped with Tomahawk missiles. At the heart of the negotiations is whether the US will seek to prohibit Tehran from all uranium enrichment except at minimal levels, such as for medical purposes at the Tehran research reactor—a five-megawatt unit dating back to 1967. The right to enrich uranium domestically has long been viewed as a symbol of Iranian national sovereignty, conceded by the US in the 2015 nuclear deal.
Some disputes over enrichment may be deferred, as Trump claimed last June that Iran's main nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan were destroyed by US bunker-busting bombs, making high-quantity enrichment technically impossible for the foreseeable future. Tehran has refused to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect the damage. Rubio stated, "They're not enriching right now, but they're trying to get to the point where they ultimately can."
Stockpile Issues and Concessions
A further impasse involves Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity, close to weapons grade. The IAEA reports that Tehran has not identified the whereabouts of 400kg of this material—enough for five to six bombs similar to the one that destroyed Nagasaki in 1945. Iran also holds an estimated 8,000kg of uranium enriched to 20% or below. Options include down-blending the stockpile in Iran, as Tehran proposes, or exporting it to Russia or the US. Sending the entire stockpile to the US would be a major concession for Iran, potentially leading to the lifting of economic sanctions.
One Iranian official in Geneva insisted, "The principles of zero enrichment forever, dismantling of nuclear facilities, and transferring uranium stocks to the US is completely rejected." Trump now has military assets in place to strike Iran, either for regime change or to force more flexible negotiations. His coercive deadlines have been flexible, but military commanders may not want to maintain such a large force concentration for much longer.
Domestic and International Pressures
Trump faces domestic pressure to demonstrate that negotiations are not a dead end, with Democrats demanding a congressional vote on what they term his "war of choice." An Associated Press poll found that 56% of Americans distrust Trump's decisions on using military force abroad. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi plays a central role, as his verification is needed to assure Washington of Iran's guarantees on low-level enrichment.
Tehran refuses to negotiate on non-nuclear issues, such as its ballistic missile programme or support for Middle Eastern resistance groups, describing its missiles—some with ranges up to 1,300 miles—as purely defensive. Rubio acknowledged that the missile programme must be addressed eventually, noting its potential threat to US soil and regional bases. He stated, "For a country facing sanctions, with a suffering economy, investing in increasingly capable missiles is an unsustainable threat."
