Ukraine's War Survival: The Technology Shift and Stubborn Defence Against Russia
As the brutal war grinds into its fifth year, the conflict has witnessed a complete transformation in military technology and a remarkably stubborn Ukrainian resistance against its much larger Russian neighbour. World Affairs Editor Sam Kiley, reporting from Kyiv, reflects on the harrowing journey from the initial invasion to the current near-stalemate, highlighting Ukraine's innovative adaptations and the geopolitical complexities shaping its fight for survival.
The Dawn of Invasion: Kharkiv Under Fire
Standing in the pre-dawn freeze on a terrace overlooking Kharkiv's Freedom Square four years ago, the sounds of war erupted with terrifying immediacy. Within less than a minute of Vladimir Putin ordering the full-scale invasion, rockets exploded on impact, their orange bulges lighting the skyline followed by concussive thumps and sharp cracks. These projectiles, fired from inside Russia, targeted Ukraine's second-largest city, marking the beginning of a prolonged assault.
Among the worst weapons were the BM-30 Smerch systems, scattering cluster bombs that spattered Kharkiv with deadly golden balls. The BM-212 Grads, reminiscent of Stalin's Organ multiple rocket launchers, screeched from the sky in swarms like spears upon residential areas, killing and burning ahead of advancing Russian infantry. Over the subsequent days, Russian troops stormed north from Crimea towards Kherson and beyond, while others blasted out of Donetsk, appearing on Kharkiv's streets.
The assumption that Russians would capture Kharkiv and the capital within days proved fatal for many invaders. Local police ambushed a reconnaissance group near Freedom Square using RPGs and rifles, resulting in a Russian soldier falling from his vehicle on fire. In a stark metaphor for Ukraine's defence, a group of babushkas, likely Russian speakers, rushed up and beat the burning man to death with broomsticks.
Early Struggles and Improvised Resistance
First invaded by Putin in 2014 with Crimea's capture, Ukraine faced initial setbacks as allies reneged on security guarantees and banned Kyiv from purchasing lethal weapons. British and US intelligence warned Volodymyr Zelensky of the impending 2022 invasion, yet preparations appeared minimal. A colonel remarked, "You're not supposed to see many preparations," but defences were virtually non-existent, leaving Ukraine reeling.
Despite this, Ukraine's population recovered its balance, with military units scrambling to mount defences that western advisers deemed incredible. The punishing defence of Hostomel air base against mass airborne attacks by paratroops and Spetznatz forces northwest of Kyiv exemplified this resilience. Elsewhere, young veterans from earlier combat years reformed into small teams in pick-up trucks, organising their families in occupied territory to spy on invaders and taking on Russia's mass columns of armour and infantry.
Footage of ambushes on these columns emerged globally, showing how small amounts of British and American military aid, like Javelin and NLAW anti-tank missiles, had staggering effects. Kharkiv, Sumy, and Kyiv were saved by swashbuckling units conducting Second World War SAS-style raids, while villages in the south organised counter-attacks, harnessing historical rage from Moscow's mass starvation in the 1930s into an "over my dead body" defiance.
Adaptation and Drone Warfare Dominance
By summer 2022, national forces regrouped and launched counter-offensives, recovering vast tracts of land in lightning operations. Since then, the conflict has settled into a near-stalemate of grinding horror, punctuated by the nerve-jangling new dimensions of drone conflict, where both sides reinvent modern warfare. Ukraine has emerged as a world leader in drone warfare, controlling the Black Sea without a traditional navy, showcasing forced innovation in the face of existential threats.
Russia pounded Kyiv's forces with hundreds of artillery pieces, while small donations of ancient guns trickled in from the democratic west over months. Long-range rockets were restricted in use, and in Bakhmut, Ukrainians and foreign volunteers fought waves of Russian prisoners and conscripts in "meat attacks." An American volunteer, Kevin, described killing "20-40 a day" with disgust, highlighting the brutal nature of the conflict.
Geopolitical Challenges and Western Support
Throughout this, Ukraine has defended Europe's eastern flank on the ground, while politically fighting to stop the "might is right" doctrine. Donald Trump's enthusiastic support for the Kremlin's Darwinian doctrine, ending American military aid, caused more deaths and setbacks for Ukraine's defence. The rest of the west has been slow to comprehend the strategic danger of Putin's land grab and the political horror of the Putin-Trump doctrine.
Initially slow to send weapons, allies eventually provided anti-tank missiles put to immediate good use. Stories like "Grumpty," a former software engineer who taught himself to drive a Russian T-82 tank from YouTube videos, and "Achilles," who was killed in 2022, captured public imagination. Together with a small band, they destroyed 14 Russian armoured vehicles in one night near Sumy, yet such acts did not deliver the weapons needed to win—barely enough to survive.
Current Realities and Future Prospects
With losses around 1.2 million casualties, Putin's war has been a disaster for Moscow, and NATO has expanded with Finland and Sweden joining. Europe has covered the loss of America's military support with €250 billion pledged, compared to the US total of $115 billion, much spent on air defences. Putin has shifted strategy to hitting civilians, blasting energy systems, and trying to break Ukrainian will, while shaping diplomatic narratives that Ukraine cannot win and should sue for peace, ceding at least 20% of its territory.
Travelling from Nikopol to Kharkiv through the fortress belt demanded by Russia for ceasefire considerations, it is clear most Ukrainians now want peace, but none view security as a trade-off. Zelensky and European allies insist on security guarantees to prevent future attacks, arguing America must be Ukraine's protector, yet reliance on the US is uncertain. Ultimately, the job falls to Ukraine's European neighbours and wider Western allies. Ukraine has shown what it can achieve with very little; imagine its potential with increased support from friends.
