Ukraine and Russia to Hold Second Round of Talks in Geneva as War Anniversary Nears
Senior Ukrainian and Russian officials are scheduled to meet this week in Switzerland for a second round of talks facilitated by the Trump administration, just days before the fourth anniversary of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The two-day meeting, commencing on Tuesday, is anticipated to follow a similar format to negotiations held earlier this month in Abu Dhabi, with representatives from Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow in attendance.
Low Expectations Amid Russian Demands
Despite renewed diplomatic efforts by the United States, expectations for any significant breakthrough remain minimal. Russia continues to insist on maximalist demands regarding Ukraine, including territorial concessions. While the Abu Dhabi discussions primarily focused on military ceasefire proposals, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated that the Geneva talks would address a broader range of issues, such as territorial questions and other conditions set by Moscow.
Vladimir Medinsky, a staunch conservative adviser to Putin who has previously questioned Ukrainian sovereignty, will lead Russia's negotiating team. He will be accompanied by Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russian military intelligence, and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, among nearly two dozen officials. Ukraine is expected to send the same delegation as in prior rounds, led by Rustem Umerov, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council.
Trump's Shifting Stance and Zelenskyy's Firm Position
Former President Donald Trump, whose second term has seen fluctuating criticism between Moscow and Kyiv, recently reverted to blaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, suggesting that Ukraine is obstructing efforts to end the conflict. "Zelenskyy needs to act. Russia wants to make a deal. He needs to act, otherwise he will miss a great opportunity," Trump remarked to reporters.
However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, expressed uncertainty about Russia's genuine commitment to ending the war. Ahead of the Geneva meeting, Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine's refusal to cede territory in the Donbas, a key Kremlin demand. He referenced previous Russian annexations in Chechnya, Georgia, and Crimea, warning that "allowing the aggressor to take something is a big mistake."
Kyiv's Perspective and Historical Context
Zelenskyy emphasized that Russia is currently suffering significant losses, with estimates of 30,000 to 35,000 casualties per month, and its attempts to seize more territory over four years of full-scale war have been largely unsuccessful. He stated, "I'm not sure he [Putin] knows that," highlighting the staggering human cost in the 21st century.
Kyiv holds no expectations that the latest trilateral talks will lead to a political breakthrough. At the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy affirmed that Ukraine would not relinquish heavily defended areas in Donetsk oblast, including cities like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, or abandon the 200,000 civilians residing there. He acknowledged differences with the US over security guarantees, with the Trump administration offering a 15-year commitment while Ukraine seeks a 30 to 50-year agreement.
Delegation Movements and Symbolic Gestures
The choice of Switzerland marks the first time the talks will be held on European soil, following earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi and Istanbul. This location appears to have been advocated by Washington, with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who are leading US engagement with Russia and Ukraine, also scheduled to meet Iranian officials in Geneva later this week.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of the presidential office, posted a photo of his train departure for the talks with the Ukrainian delegation, captioning it, "On the way to Geneva. The next round of negotiations is ahead. Along the way, we will discuss the lessons of our history with our colleagues and seek the right conclusions. Ukraine's interests must be protected." This historical reference is seen as a subtle jab at Medinsky, who is believed to have authored a 2021 essay attributed to Putin, arguing that Ukraine and Russia share a common origin as a single people and state.
Political Pressures and Electoral Concerns
Olexiy Haran, a professor of comparative politics at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, noted that Ukrainians overwhelmingly oppose growing US-Russian demands for Ukraine to hold presidential elections. "The country is not ready for them because there are no security conditions. It would be crazy to conduct them under martial law," he explained.
Haran recognized that Trump and Putin are exerting "huge pressure" on Zelenskyy to schedule a poll in the coming months. He suggested that the Kremlin aims to "destabilise" the situation within Ukraine and is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire. Numerous legal and practical obstacles exist to holding a vote, including the challenge of involving international observers. "Doubts of the government's legitimacy is a trick of the Kremlin, echoed unfortunately by President Trump. Political renewal is needed, but elections can only take place once the war ends and security conditions allow," Haran concluded.
Despite the low hopes, Zelenskyy has indicated that Kyiv is hopeful the war could conclude this year, emphasizing a constructive role in the trilateral talks while steadfastly protecting Ukrainian sovereignty and interests.
