Iran-US Nuclear Talks Resume in Geneva Amid Military Tensions and Protests
A fresh round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States concerning Tehran's nuclear programme has commenced in Geneva, Switzerland. The discussions, which began on Tuesday, are centred on the conditions for Iran to constrain its nuclear activities under the supervision of the United Nations nuclear weapons inspectorate, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Military Buildup and Contradictory Messages
The talks are unfolding against a backdrop of heightened military activity and mixed signals from former US President Donald Trump. Trump has expressed belief that Iran desires a deal, yet simultaneously highlighted a US naval buildup in the region. In response, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, warned that the US could not destroy the Islamic Republic, implicitly threatening US warships by stating that weapons capable of sinking them are more dangerous than the vessels themselves.
Iran further escalated tensions by announcing live-fire military exercises in parts of the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, leading to temporary closures of this critical waterway. A full closure could severely disrupt global commercial shipping, given Iran's control over the strait.
Diplomatic Channels and Key Figures
Oman continues to serve as the mediator in these talks, facilitating message exchanges that have persisted since the initial round began on 6 February. The Iranian delegation is led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who met with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi on Monday. The US side, led by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, met with Grossi on Tuesday, underscoring the central role of nuclear verification in this phase of negotiations.
Any potential agreement to limit Iran's nuclear programme would necessitate the full return of IAEA inspectors to Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran has proposed diluting its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%, but opposes exporting it abroad, likely to Russia. Previous talks in Cairo on IAEA access protocols collapsed, leaving only a limited number of inspectors in Iran with incomplete knowledge of damage from US bombings or centrifuge restart capabilities.
Economic Incentives and Domestic Pressures
Iran is seeking to reaffirm its right to enrich uranium domestically, despite practical limitations. To sweeten the deal, Tehran has offered a prosperity package and a non-aggression pact with the US, potentially including Israel. Hamid Ghanbari, deputy director for economic diplomacy at Iran's foreign ministry, emphasised that the US must benefit economically for any agreement to endure, citing potential collaborations in oil, gas, mining, and aircraft purchases.
He argued that embedding US commercial interests in Iran could create a lobby opposed to sanctions and military action. However, Trump has previously suggested that the ideal outcome would be Khamenei's resignation, though the US lacks a clear strategy to achieve this and has not endorsed Reza Pahlavi, the former shah's son, as a transitional figure.
Internal Unrest and Political Crackdowns
Domestically, Iran faces significant unrest. An Executive Committee for the Establishment of a National Salvation Front has formed around principles set by former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, advocating for non-interference, rejection of despotism, and democratic transition. In response, security services have arrested numerous Reformist politicians and thousands of young protesters.
For instance, Masoud Pezeshkian intervened to secure the release of some arrested Reformists, though others like Mustafa Tajzadeh and Ali Shakouri Rad remain jailed on charges of propaganda against the regime. The judiciary reported that 10,538 protesters have been summoned for trial, with widespread allegations of coerced confessions and denial of legal representation, such as in a raid in Hamadan province where hundreds were detained.
Protests and International Context
As talks proceeded, protesters gathered outside the Omani consulate in Geneva, highlighting the international scrutiny and domestic dissent surrounding the negotiations. The combination of diplomatic efforts, military posturing, and internal repression paints a complex picture of the challenges facing both nations in reaching a sustainable nuclear agreement.
