Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have so far remained on the sidelines as the Iran war widens across the Middle East, raising questions about why — and when the battle-hardened group might join the fight. Iran has retaliated against the United States and Israel with missiles and drones, targeting American military bases and other locations in Gulf Arab countries, disrupting trade routes, choking fuel supplies and threatening regional air traffic.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, suggested on Thursday in his first written statement since succeeding his father, who was killed in the war's opening salvo, that Iran may open up new fronts in the conflict — a sign, analysts say, the Houthis may get involved soon. Until now, the Houthis have been reluctant to fight, fearing assassinations of their leaders, internal divisions in Yemen and uncertainties over weapons supplies, the experts said.
But that may change as Iran seeks to increase pressure on global oil supply routes through potential attacks by the Houthis, who have had previous success targeting oil facilities in the region, the analysts said. Iran has asserted its influence across the Middle East through its proxy forces in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen's Houthis. Some of its closest allies have already joined the conflict, with Hezbollah resuming strikes on Israel within two days of the attack on Iran — and just 15 months after the last Israel-Hezbollah war ended in a November 2024 ceasefire. Militias linked to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have claimed drone strikes on U.S. bases in Irbil.
Meanwhile, the Houthis have only held protests and issued declarations condemning the Iran war, in contrast to the waves of missile and drone attacks they launched on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel sparked the war in the Gaza Strip. Armed by Iran, the Houthis seized most of Yemen’s north and its capital, Sanaa, in 2014, pushing the country’s internationally recognized government into exile. A Saudi-led coalition backing Yemen’s government entered the conflict the following year, and the Houthis have since fought a long-running but largely stalemated civil war in Yemen.
While the Houthis share some political and religious ties with Iran, they follow a different doctrine of Shiite Islam and are independent of Iran’s supreme leader, unlike the Lebanese militant Hezbollah group and several Iran-backed Iraqi militias. Still, they are key to Iran’s regional influence and the current war is unlikely to weaken that, according to Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank. “From Tehran’s perspective, the Houthis have proven themselves to be a capable and effective front, able to generate real pressure,” Nagi said. He said the Houthi leaders' decision to distance themselves from the conflict is a calculated choice that has been fully coordinated with the Iranians.
Two Houthi members of the group's media and political offices told The Associated Press that the rebels' weapons stockpile is running low after its attacks during the Israel-Hamas war. The Iran war has further impeded the flow of weapons, said the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to talk to the media. Still, the group has a large stockpile of drones, said another official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the weapons issue, about which he is well-informed. Nagi said the Houthis appear to be building up their forces by recruiting more fighters, relying on local weapons production and sending reinforcements to Yemen’s western coastline on the Red Sea, signaling they are preparing for escalation. “The decision is not about unwillingness to intervene, but about timing,” Nagi said. “Iran’s broader strategy seems to be to avoid throwing all its cards on the table at once, instead using its partners and capabilities gradually as the confrontation evolves.”
The Houthis are likely to step in if the conflict widens, Nagi added, or if they perceive an existential threat to Iran, such as significant deterioration in military capabilities. Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi has repeatedly emphasized the group is ready to intervene, claiming their “hands are on the trigger,” though it's unclear what that involvement would entail.
