A new global survey has delivered a stark assessment of international perceptions, suggesting that one year into his second term, President Donald Trump's tenure is viewed as strengthening a major geopolitical rival more than his own nation.
Global Opinion Shifts Eastward
The latest poll from The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), sampling 25,949 respondents across 21 nations in November 2025, found that citizens worldwide increasingly believe China is ascendant, while few say the same of the United States. Analysts conclude that Trump's "America First" agenda has accelerated this shift.
The think tank noted, "Donald Trump did not go into politics to make China great again. But that is what the latest poll of global public opinion…suggests he has done in the eyes of the world." The policies cited include high tariffs on allies and adversaries and a noted scepticism towards the US-led alliance system, which are seen as pushing nations closer to Beijing.
Detailed Findings: Allies, Adversaries, and Industry
The data reveals a significant realignment in how nations view the two powers. Majorities in many key countries believe China will exert more global influence in the coming decade:
- 54% of Americans
- 53% of European Union citizens
- 51% of Indians
- 72% of Brazilians
Concurrently, fear of China's rise has diminished. Only in South Korea and Ukraine do most people describe China as an adversary or rival. In contrast, half or more of respondents in Russia, South Africa, Brazil, Turkey, and Europe characterise China as an ally or necessary partner.
The share describing Beijing as an ally that "shares our interests and values" has risen since 2024 in South Africa, Brazil, and India. Furthermore, 71% of South Africans and 52% of Brazilians foresee their nation's relationship with China deepening in the next five years.
In terms of economic leadership, large shares of people predict China will lead in major industries like electric vehicles, a view prevalent in the EU and, to a lesser extent, the US.
America's Diminished Standing and a Multi-Polar Future
While China's perceived ascent is clear, the poll does not necessarily forecast an American collapse. Fewer than half of respondents believe the US will become stronger, but many expect it to remain influential, pointing to a potential return to a multi-polar world.
However, America's image as an ally has suffered. The proportion of respondents describing the US as an ally has fallen in numerous countries and blocs, including China, Ukraine, and the EU. In the UK, just 25% considered the US an ally sharing interests and values. Across ten polled EU nations, that figure was a mere 16%. The sole exception was India, where a majority (54%) held that view.
America's adversaries also discount its future influence, with only 20% of Russians and 34% of Chinese expecting the US to gain more global clout. The poll was conducted against a backdrop of diplomatic friction, notably Vice President JD Vance's critical speech at the Munich Security Conference in February and a tense Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy the same month.
More recently, Trump and deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller refusing to rule out military action to acquire Greenland, a territory of NATO ally Denmark, has further strained perceptions. In most nations surveyed, the share of people who think Trump’s election was good for Americans, their own nations, and world peace has fallen.
