The muted international reaction to Donald Trump's extraordinary military seizure of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro over the weekend was, sadly, predictable. Western leaders remain trapped in a geopolitical mindset where avoiding the ire of the Trump administration takes precedence over almost all else.
The Calculated Silence of America's Allies
Most of America's traditional allies offered little criticism of the operation. Instead, they cautiously welcomed the end of the Maduro era, limiting their commentary to urging restraint from the White House regarding future steps. The fact that Maduro was widely viewed as an illegitimate dictator certainly made this tacit support easier to justify.
However, the core motivation was clear: a desire not to provoke a thin-skinned president who leads the world's pre-eminent military and economic power. For nations in Europe particularly, maintaining friendly ties with Washington is still seen as a cornerstone of national security, regardless of who occupies the Oval Office. The prevailing logic has been that it is simpler to manage and influence Trump from a position of alliance than one of hostility.
A Warning in the Toppling of a Dictator
This calculation, however, is being severely tested by the events in Venezuela and other increasingly erratic statements from Trump. The deposition of Maduro proves a critical point: Trump is prepared to use military force to follow through on his threats. This represents a significant escalation from mere rhetoric.
It follows a pattern of concerning behaviour aimed even at allies. Recent days have seen understandable alarm in Denmark after Trump reiterated his desire to acquire Greenland, stating America would "get it, one way or the other." The Danish PM was forced to remind Trump of their NATO alliance. He has similarly mused about annexing Canada. While acting against a South American autocrat differs from invading an ally, the underlying principle of Trump acting on impulsive threats should alarm Western capitals.
The Reckoning for Western Unity
The world is learning that reliance on American security guarantees leaves it vulnerable to the whims of a president who shows thinly-veiled contempt for traditional alliances. His threats to abandon Ukraine, withdraw funding from NATO, and endorse nationalist movements in Europe can no longer be dismissed as mere bluster.
A tipping point is approaching where the risks of subservience to Trump's America begin to outweigh the benefits. His willingness to weaponise economic power against competitors, even to the detriment of US consumers, is already clear. The rest of the West must now shift focus from appeasing Trump to soberly defending its own collective interests.
This does not mean a wholesale break with the United States, but it does necessitate rock-solid unity among European and other democratic nations. Standing up to the weaponisation of American power under Trump 2.0 will be difficult, and some may be tempted to break ranks for fleeting favour. They must remember that Washington's "special relationships" are rarely exclusive. The era of assuming shared values will guarantee aligned action is over. The post-Maduro moment demands a new, more pragmatic and united strategic calculus from America's allies.
