A new poll has suggested that unionist parties could hold a majority in the Scottish Parliament after the May 7 election, with the SNP projected to fall one seat short of a combined majority with the Scottish Greens. The survey, conducted by More in Common and seen exclusively by the Press Association, indicates the SNP would drop to 56 seats from 64, while Reform UK would become the second-largest party with 22 seats.
The MRP poll, which surveyed over 5,000 Scots between February 4 and April 10, shows Labour falling to 17 MSPs and the Conservatives dropping to 12 seats, down from 31 in 2021. The Liberal Democrats are projected to gain 14 MSPs, and the Scottish Greens eight, with the latter set to win their first constituency seats in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill, and Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith.
Reform UK could take two constituencies from the SNP—Ayr and Banffshire and Buchan Coast—while the Liberal Democrats are forecast to reclaim Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, and Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, previously held by former deputy first minister Kate Forbes. More in Common found that 39 of the 73 constituency seats are marginal, within five percentage points, meaning the outcome is highly uncertain.
Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, said the SNP is suffering from the 'curse of incumbency' and that the fragmentation of the unionist vote, with Reform UK emerging as the strongest unionist party, adds to the uncertainty. If the poll is accurate, John Swinney would need to find partners elsewhere to secure the first ministership, potentially facing a 65-strong unionist bloc.
Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie argued that after 20 years of SNP government, Scotland needs change, while Liberal Democrat campaign chairwoman Wendy Chamberlain said momentum is behind her party, citing their focus on healthcare and the cost of living.
