An internal document from Vietnam's Ministry of Defence, completed in August 2024, reveals that the country's military has been secretly preparing for a potential American invasion, despite elevating diplomatic relations with Washington to the highest level in 2023. The document, titled “The 2nd US Invasion Plan”, outlines concerns that the US and its allies are ready to apply unconventional warfare and military intervention against nations that “deviate from its orbit”.
The analysis by The 88 Project, a human rights organisation, highlights a deep-seated fear within Vietnam's Communist leadership of a “colour revolution” fomented by external forces. Ben Swanton, co-director of The 88 Project, noted that there is a consensus across the government regarding these concerns, not just a fringe element.
While the document states that “currently there is little risk of a war against Vietnam”, it warns of the need to be vigilant against the US creating a pretext for invasion. Vietnamese planners see a progression over three American administrations—Obama, Trump, and Biden—in which Washington has increasingly pursued military relationships with Asian nations to form a front against China.
In 2023, President Biden signed a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” with Vietnam, elevating relations to the highest diplomatic level. However, the military document suggests that the US aims to spread its values regarding freedom, democracy, and human rights to gradually change Vietnam's socialist government. The US State Department declined to comment directly on the invasion plan but emphasised that the partnership promotes prosperity and security for both nations.
Nguyen Khac Giang, a researcher at Singapore’s ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, said the plans highlight tensions within Vietnam's political leadership, with the military-aligned faction preoccupied with external threats. In June 2024, an army TV report accused US-linked Fulbright University of fomenting a “colour revolution”, though the Foreign Ministry defended the university.
