Renewed Russian Air Attacks Grip Kyiv
After more than four years of war, Ukraine faces a familiar yet intensified threat. Russia has stepped up air attacks on the Ukrainian capital, with frequent mass drone and missile strikes keeping residents awake. Unlike earlier in the conflict, some attacks now penetrate Kyiv's air defences, striking the city centre. One recent attack killed 27 people, forcing thousands to seek shelter in the metro overnight.
Peace Deal Prospects and Skepticism
Despite Donald Trump's failed attempts to broker a ceasefire, cautious optimism is emerging in Kyiv that late autumn 2025 could provide a window for a deal. Ukraine is keen to avoid another winter at war, while Vladimir Putin faces pressure from Kyiv's long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. However, skeptics point to Putin's aggressive rhetoric and suggest Moscow is more likely to double down than seek agreement.
Domestic Political Turmoil
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is preparing to reshuffle the government, with rumors he may seek a renewed mandate through a presidential election following a potential ceasefire. Questions remain over how voting would be organized for frontline communities, Ukrainians under Russian occupation, and millions of refugees abroad. It is unclear who would challenge Zelenskyy or whether a real political contest is possible under current conditions.
Ukraine-Poland Rift Over Historical Memory
A deepening dispute between Ukraine and Poland threatens to fray the alliance that was once a cornerstone of Kyiv's support. Poland is furious that Ukrainian authorities named a military unit after the 'Heroes of the UPA'—the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, a wartime nationalist group whose branch was responsible for massacres of Poles and Jews during World War II. Bartosz Cichocki, Poland's former ambassador to Ukraine, warned that Poland may now get tougher on Ukraine's EU accession path, stating there will be 'no more romance, no more naivety' in the relationship.
Historical Memory and Propaganda
The Kremlin has long used the trope of Ukraine being full of fascist neo-Nazis as propaganda. Ukraine has pushed back by reclaiming cultural heritage and building a consolidated national identity. However, the tension with Poland introduces a more complicated element. Many people, not only Poles, object to veneration of the UPA. The dispute reflects a broader battle over history that is testing Kyiv's chances for an end to the conflict.
Public Animosity on Both Sides
Conversations in both Ukraine and Poland reveal deep animosity among ordinary people. Ukrainians argue that Poland is playing into Russian hands by focusing on history during wartime. Poles counter that after four years of military and humanitarian aid, they expect their ally not to honor figures who massacred Poles. With elections due in Poland and potentially in Ukraine, the situation is expected to worsen before it improves.
